Most-likely bracket
The single most-likely matchup in each knockout slot across 10 000 simulations, conditioned on results played so far. The highlighted side is the one more likely to advance from that pairing; the percentage is its conditional win probability. The pairing figure is how often that exact matchup occurs — small in early rounds (many paths feed each slot) and firming as groups resolve. Current favourite: Spain at 13.9% to lift the trophy.
← scroll the bracket horizontally →
Each slot shows its own most-likely pairing computed independently, so the same strong team can headline several slots — these are marginal modes, not a single simulated tournament. Early-round pairing probabilities are intrinsically low: dozens of group permutations and Annex C third-place allocations can feed the same round-of-32 seat, so no single matchup dominates. The figure rises sharply once group results lock the bracket. See probabilities for each team's full stage-by-stage odds and methodology for how the simulation works.