United States vs Paraguay

The model gives USA only a 40% win probability, but several supplied facts push strongly in USA's favor. Head-to-head shows USA dominance (4 of last 5 wins). Paraguay's key attacker Julio Enciso is confirmed out (nypost.com), weakening their attack. USA's key players are all at top European clubs, while Paraguay's are at lower levels. The squad quality gap and Enciso absence justify raising USA's win probability to 52%, with draw and Paraguay win reduced accordingly. USA's expected goals rise from 1.18 to about 1.5 given the squad advantage and Enciso absence, while Paraguay's drop from 0.99 to ~0.8. The most likely scorelines reflect a low-scoring match (1-0, 2-0, 1-1) but with increased chance of a USA clean sheet.

• Recent form
  USA recent form WLLWL, -0.03 pts/match vs expectation vs avg opp rank #11; Paraguay LWWLW, +0.35 pts/match vs expectation vs avg opp rank #51. Paraguay overperforming against weaker opposition, USA slightly underperforming against strong opposition. → favours Paraguay slightly, but strength of schedule gap limits signal
• Head-to-head
  Last 5 meetings: USA 3 wins, Paraguay 1 win, 1 draw. Most recent in Nov 2025 USA 2-1 Paraguay. USA has won 4 of last 5. → favours USA
• Availability
  No injuries reported for either side in supplied intel. However, recent news indicates Paraguay star Julio Enciso is out (stretchered, one week before match). USA midfielder Johnny Cardoso also out due to ankle surgery, but he is not a key player listed. Chris Richards' status uncertain (injury doubt). → favours USA (Enciso absence hurts Paraguay attack)
• Key players
  USA key players: Pulisic (AC Milan), Pepi (PSV), McKennie (Juventus), Balogun (Monaco), Reyna (Mönchengladbach) – all at top European clubs. Paraguay key players: Almirón (Atlanta United), Sanabria (Cremonese), Romero (Al Ain), Enciso (Strasbourg, but out), Gómez (Palmeiras) – mostly lower-level clubs and Enciso out. → favours USA (squad quality gap)
• Recent news
  Multiple sources confirm Enciso out (nypost.com). Forbes preview notes USMNT expected to win. Cardoso out (foxsports.com) but not a key player. Richards doubtful (foxsports.com) but not confirmed out. → favours USA (Enciso absence confirmed)
• Conditions
  SoFi Stadium: 20.1°C, partly cloudy, humidity 85%, wind 15.5 km/h, controlled roof (dome) neutralizes weather. Conditions not extreme. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model prior: USA 40% win, draw 29%, Paraguay 31% win. No market lines supplied for comparison. → prior is baseline, but facts push away from it

• 1–0 18%
• 1–1 15%
• 2–0 15%
• 2–1 14%
• 0–0 12%
• 0–1 11%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.