Haiti vs Scotland

The model already heavily favours Scotland (63% away win), and the supplied intel supports that lean. Scotland's recent form is stronger (+0.26 pts/match vs expectations) against tougher opposition (rank #50) compared to Haiti's (in-line vs rank #76). Scotland's key players operate at a higher club level (Napoli, Aston Villa, Bournemouth) than Haiti's (Esteghlal, AEK Athens, Almere City), reinforcing the quality gap. No injuries, neutral conditions, and no head-to-head history leave no reason to diverge from the model; I slightly increase away probability to 65% to reflect the form and player quality edge. With Scotland's expected goals at 2.01 and Haiti's at 0.76, the most likely outcome is a low-scoring away win. The top scoreline 0-1 (13%) reflects Scotland's defensive solidity and Haiti's limited attack. 0-2 (12%) and 0-0 (9%) are also plausible, while 1-1 (9%) accounts for a potential Haiti goal. The distribution is concentrated on low totals given both teams' moderate attacking output.

• Recent form
  Scotland over-performed expectations by +0.26 pts/match vs opponents averaging rank #50; Haiti performed in line with expectations (+0.14) vs opponents averaging rank #76. → favours away
• Head-to-head
  No previous meetings; no bearing. → no bearing
• Availability
  No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Scotland's key players (McTominay, McGinn, Christie) play at higher club level (Napoli, Aston Villa, Bournemouth) than Haiti's (Esteghlal, AEK Athens, Almere City, Toronto). → favours away
• Recent news
  Scotland squad named with no major absences; Haiti has one player awaiting visa but not a key starter per reports. No significant disruption. → slightly favours away
• Conditions
  24.2°C, clear, low humidity, no wind or precipitation; neutral conditions, no extreme factors. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives away 63% win probability; no market lines provided to compare. → no bearing

• 0–1 21%
• 0–2 19%
• 1–1 15%
• 0–0 14%
• 1–2 11%
• 0–3 11%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.