Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
← All fixtures
Group F · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14

Netherlands vs Japan

Arlington, United States · neutral venue

Most likely scoreline
1–0 12.4%
45.9%
NED win
26.1%
Draw
28.0%
JPN win
Top scorelines
  • 1–0 12.4%
  • 0–0 11.1%
  • 1–1 10.5%
  • 0–1 9.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat
NED win
50.7%
Draw
25.7%
JPN win
23.7%

The model's prior (46/26/28) is a reasonable starting point, but the supplied intel pushes toward Netherlands. Japan's recent form is excellent, but they are missing captain Endo and star Mitoma is doubtful, while Netherlands have no key absences and a stronger squad on paper. Head-to-head history also favours Netherlands. I adjust home win up to 50%, away win down to 24%, draw unchanged at 26%. Netherlands are favourites to score first, but Japan's defensive organisation (evidenced by recent form) keeps it low-scoring. The most likely outcome is a narrow Netherlands win (1-0 or 2-0), with 1-1 draw also plausible given Japan's counter-attacking threat. Total expected goals around 2.3, consistent with model's 1.45-1.02 split.

What the agent weighed
What the agent chose to investigate
The agent decided what to check on tavily — 9 sources kept:
  • “Netherlands vs Japan 2026-06-14 lineup injuries” match · 3 hits
    Late fitness or lineup changes could significantly affect the forecast.
  • “Netherlands squad 2026 injuries suspensions” NED · 3 hits
    Key player absences would shift the balance.
  • “Japan squad 2026 injuries suspensions” JPN · 3 hits
    Key player absences would shift the balance.
Agent scorelines
generated 2026-06-13
Last 5 — NED
-0.43 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #51
  • LIT #138 +0.1
  • NOR #19 +1.0
  • ECU #16 -0.8
  • ALG #30 -2.2
  • UZB #54 +0.6
GF / GA last 10: 22 / 8
Last 5 — JPN
+1.29 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #47
  • GHA #59 +0.8
  • BOL #72 +0.6
  • SCO #38 +1.5
  • ENG #4 +2.4
  • ICE #61 +0.7
GF / GA last 10: 19 / 6
Head-to-head (last 5)
  • 2013-11-16 Netherlands 2–2 Japan
  • 2010-06-19 Netherlands 1–0 Japan
  • 2009-09-05 Netherlands 3–0 Japan
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.1
9.4
4.8
1.9
0.6
0.2
0.1
1
12.4
10.5
5.3
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
2
8.4
7.1
3.6
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
4.4
3.7
1.9
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
2.0
1.7
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

Rows = NED goals; columns = JPN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.45
NED
1.02
JPN

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.