Spain vs Cape Verde

Spain are a vastly stronger side than Cape Verde, with nearly all key players at top European clubs versus Cape Verde's players at mid-level clubs. The model's prior of 78% home win is reasonable, but I lower it slightly to 75% because Spain have been under-performing expectations recently and their star winger Lamine Yamal is confirmed out for the opener. Cape Verde's over-performance against weaker opposition does not translate against a top-10 side like Spain, so the draw and away win probabilities are only marginally increased. Spain's expected goals of 2.60 reflect their attacking talent even without Yamal, but Cape Verde's defence is unlikely to concede many more than 2-3 goals. The most likely scorelines are 2-0, 1-0, and 3-0, with a small chance of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw if Spain's finishing is off. Cape Verde scoring is unlikely given Spain's defensive solidity.

• Recent form
  Spain are under-performing expectations by -0.52 pts/match vs opponents averaging rank #42; Cape Verde are over-performing by +0.49 pts/match vs opponents averaging rank #67. → narrows the gap slightly, but Spain's quality advantage remains large
• Head-to-head
  No previous meetings between these sides. → no bearing
• Availability
  No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Spain's key attackers include Oyarzabal (17G/7A recent), Merino (9G/0A), Yamal (4G/8A) though Yamal is injured and likely out; Cape Verde's top players are Ryan Mendes (5G/0A recent, Iğdır FK) and Garry Rodrigues (1G/0A, Apollon Limassol), all playing at lower club levels. → strongly favours Spain, even without Yamal
• Recent news
  Multiple reports confirm Lamine Yamal is injured and expected to miss the opener (ynetnews.com, greenwichtime.com). Cape Verde are making their World Cup debut (yahoo.com, theguardian.com). → Yamal's absence slightly reduces Spain's attacking ceiling; Cape Verde debut may add motivation but not enough to close gap
• Conditions
  Match is in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, with climate-controlled roof; conditions neutralized. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives Spain 78% win, 2.60 expected goals; no market lines supplied to compare. → model prior is a strong Spain win; I adjust down slightly due to Yamal absence and Spain's under-performance

• 2–0 20%
• 1–0 18%
• 3–0 16%
• 2–1 13%
• 0–0 10%
• 1–1 9%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.