Iran vs New Zealand

The model already favours Iran (56% win), and the supplied intel reinforces that: Iran's recent form is strong (+0.63 over-performance) against weaker opponents, while New Zealand is in poor form (-0.15) against stronger opponents. The key player quality gap is clear—Iran's attackers play at higher club levels and have better recent ratings than New Zealand's. The head-to-head, though sparse, is undefeated for Iran. No injuries or conditions alter the picture. I nudge the home win probability up to 60%, keeping the draw around 25% and away win at 15%. Iran's expected goals (1.44) and New Zealand's (0.54) suggest a low-scoring match with Iran controlling. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%), followed by 2-0 (14%) and 1-1 (10%). The 0-0 draw (9%) is still plausible given New Zealand's defensive setup, but Iran's attacking quality makes a clean sheet for Iran likely.

• Recent form
  Iran's last five: DLWWW, over-performing by +0.63 pts/match vs expectation against avg rank #60 opponents. New Zealand's last five: LLWLL, in line with expectation (-0.15) against avg rank #42 opponents. → favours Iran
• Head-to-head
  Only two meetings: Iran 3-0 in 2003, 0-0 in 1973. Very limited sample, but Iran unbeaten. → slightly favours Iran
• Availability
  No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Iran's key players (Taremi, Jahanbakhsh, Mohebi, Torabi, Rezaeian) mostly play at strong club levels (Olympiakos, Rostov, etc.) with high recent ratings. New Zealand's key players (Wood, Barbarouses, Waine, Just, Garbett) play at lower-tier clubs (Nottingham Forest, Motherwell, etc.) with lower recent ratings. → favours Iran
• Recent news
  Iran had visa issues for officials but players granted visas; ticket allocation withdrawn. New Zealand cricket unrelated. No football-specific disruption for either team. → no bearing
• Conditions
  SoFi Stadium indoor, 21.8°C, clear, humidity 65%, wind 21.2 km/h. Controlled roof neutralizes weather; conditions are mild and neutral. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives Iran 56% win, 28% draw, 15% away win; no market lines supplied. I adjust slightly upward for Iran based on form and key player quality gap. → favours Iran

• 1–0 24%
• 2–0 18%
• 0–0 17%
• 1–1 13%
• 2–1 10%
• 3–0 8%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.