Group B · Matchday 8 · 2026-06-18
Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Inglewood, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
14.1%
59.0%
SUI win
23.4%
Draw
17.4%
BIH win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 14.1%
- 2–0 11.2%
- 0–0 10.7%
- 1–1 9.2%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
The agent’s call
3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chatSUI win
56.3%
Draw
25.3%
BIH win
18.3%
The model gives Switzerland a strong 59% win probability, but the key fact of Embolo's unavailability (denied entry to the US) significantly weakens their attack. Bosnia's form is all draws but they have Dzeko in good form. The model's prior is too high on Switzerland; I reduce home win to 55% and increase draw and away win slightly. The match is likely tight, with Bosnia capable of a draw or narrow win. Without Embolo, Switzerland's expected goals drop from 1.82 to around 1.5. Bosnia's defense is solid (5 draws), so low-scoring outcomes are likely. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 or 2-0 for Switzerland, but draws like 1-1 or 0-0 are also plausible.
What the agent weighed
-
Recent formSwitzerland recent form DLDWD (5 points from 5); Bosnia DDDDD (5 draws, 5 points). Both modest, no strong momentum. → no bearing
-
Head-to-headOnly one meeting: 2016-03-29 Switzerland 0-2 Bosnia. Very old and limited sample. → no bearing
-
AvailabilityNo injuries reported for either side. However, news (telecomasia.net) states Switzerland's Embolo denied entry to the US due to criminal record, making him unavailable for this match. → favours Bosnia (removes Switzerland's key attacker)
-
Key playersSwitzerland's top players: Xhaka (143 caps, 7.55 rating), Ndoye (7.85 rating), Embolo (80 caps, 11G/1A recent) but Embolo is unavailable. Bosnia's Dzeko (174 caps, 93G, 7.26 rating, 12G/1A recent) leads a strong attack. Switzerland's squad depth is greater overall but missing Embolo. → slightly favours Bosnia (Embolo absence weakens Switzerland)
-
Recent newsEmbolo denied entry (telecomasia.net); Switzerland base camp snake scare (telecomasia.net) — minor distraction. Bosnia's Dzeko interview (skysports.com) positive. No other impactful news. → slightly favours Bosnia (Embolo out, Switzerland camp disruption)
-
ConditionsSoFi Stadium: 24.8°C, overcast, humidity 52%, wind 12 km/h, controlled roof. Neutral conditions. → no bearing
-
Model vs marketModel gives Switzerland 59% win, 1.82-0.75 xG. No market lines provided. Model likely overestimates Switzerland without Embolo. → favours Bosnia (model too high on Switzerland)
What the agent checked on the web
Searched tavily for
SUI · BIH
— 6 sources kept
- SUI: Switzerland National Football Team Forward Embolo Denied Entry to the United States Due to Criminal Record - Telecom Asia Sport — # Switzerland National Football Team Forward Embolo Denied Entry to the United States Due to Criminal Record. **According to the Associated Press, Ligue 1 Rennes and Swit telecomasia.net · Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:07:19 GMT
- SUI: BREAKING: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Set for 3–4 Weeks Out After Suspected MCL Injury Ahead of World Cup Opener - Telecom Asia Sport — # BREAKING: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Set for 3–4 Weeks Out After Suspected MCL Injury Ahead of World Cup Opener. The Real Betis attacker picked up the injury in the first ha telecomasia.net · Mon, 08 Jun 2026 10:42:23 GMT
- SUI: World Cup 2026: Switzerland Relocate Base Camp After Venomous Snake Scare in San Diego - Telecom Asia Sport — # World Cup 2026: Switzerland Relocate Base Camp After Venomous Snake Scare in San Diego. Switzerland have reportedly been forced to urgently relocate their World Cup training base in the Un telecomasia.net · Mon, 08 Jun 2026 09:19:58 GMT
- BIH: Bosnia’s World Cup pursuit begins at a home-away-from home in the American Midwest - AP News — Test Your News I.Q. 2026 Elections Election Results Election calendar White House Congress Supreme Court The latest AP-NORC polls Ground Game. Your home base for in-depth reporting from the world of sports apnews.com · Fri, 05 Jun 2026 07:56:44 GMT
- BIH: Edin Dzeko interview: Bosnia striker on playing at the World Cup aged 40 after helping Schalke back to the Bundesliga - Sky Sports — # Edin Dzeko interview: Bosnia striker on playing at the World Cup aged 40 after helping Schalke back to the Bundesliga. In this interview with Edin Dzeko, the Bosnia skysports.com · Tue, 09 Jun 2026 09:00:47 GMT
- BIH: Where to watch Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 2026 FIFA World Cup today? Next game, start time, TV channels and online live streams - Goal.com — Watch it on beIN SPORTS CONNECT. # Where to watch Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 2026 FIFA World Cup today? Find out where to watch the Bosnia and Herzegovin goal.com · Wed, 10 Jun 2026 11:53:39 GMT
Agent scorelines
- 1–0 21%
- 2–0 17%
- 1–1 15%
- 0–0 15%
- 2–1 12%
- 0–1 10%
generated 2026-06-11
Last 5 — SUI
-0.42 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #37
- KOS #56 -0.8
- GER #7 -1.3
- NOR #19 -0.2
- JOR #73 +0.6
- AUS #28 -0.9
GF / GA last 10: 22 / 8
Last 5 — BIH
-0.13 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #50
- WAL #46 +0.1
- ITA #13 +0.2
- NOR #71 -0.7
- PAN #74 -0.3
- CAN #44 +0.1
GF / GA last 10: 15 / 11
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2016-03-29 Switzerland 0–2 Bosnia and Herzegovina
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.7
7.0
2.8
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
1
14.1
9.2
3.6
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
2
11.2
7.3
2.9
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
3
6.9
4.5
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
3.6
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
1.7
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = SUI goals; columns = BIH goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.8
SUI
0.76
BIH
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.