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Group D · Matchday 9 · 2026-06-19

Turkey vs Paraguay

Santa Clara, United States · neutral venue

Most likely scoreline

0–0 13.8%

37.9%

TUR win

28.7%

Draw

33.4%

PAR win

Top scorelines

0–0 13.8%
1–0 12.8%
0–1 11.9%
1–1 11.1%

Total goals

0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat

TUR win

39.3%

Draw

30.0%

PAR win

30.7%

The model's near-even forecast (home 36%, draw 29%, away 35%) is a reasonable starting point, but the supplied intel shows a clear squad quality gap: Turkey's key players (Çalhanoglu, Güler, Aktürkoğlu) are at top European clubs with strong recent ratings, while Paraguay's key players (Almirón, Sanabria, Enciso) are at lower-tier clubs with weaker ratings. Turkey's recent form (WDWWW) is also slightly better than Paraguay's (LWWLW). News articles reinforce Turkey as dark horses and note Paraguay's long World Cup absence. I therefore increase Turkey's win probability to 40%, reduce draw to 30%, and away win to 30%. The model's low expected goals (Turkey 1.08, Paraguay 1.05) suggest a low-scoring match, with 0-0 and 1-0/0-1 as top scorelines. Given Turkey's slight edge in quality, 1-0 is the most likely single outcome, but draws (0-0, 1-1) also remain probable. I keep the scoreline distribution close to the model's, with a slight shift toward Turkey scoring.

What the agent weighed

Recent form

Turkey's last five matches: WDWWW; Paraguay's: LWWLW. → Slightly favours Turkey
Head-to-head

No previous meetings between Turkey and Paraguay. → No bearing
Availability

No injuries reported for either side; all key players available. → No bearing
Key players

Turkey's key players (Çalhanoglu, Güler, Aktürkoğlu) play for top European clubs (Inter, Real Madrid, Fenerbahçe) with high ratings; Paraguay's (Almirón, Sanabria, Enciso) play for lower-tier clubs (Atlanta United, Cremonese, Strasbourg) with lower ratings. → Favours Turkey
Recent news

News articles highlight Turkey as 'dark horses' with a strong squad (telecomasia.net), while Paraguay is noted for a 16-year World Cup absence and the potential loss of Julio Enciso (nypost.com) – though Enciso is listed as available in the intel. → Slightly favours Turkey
Conditions

Levi's Stadium: 20.9°C, clear, humidity 48%, wind 16.8 km/h – mild conditions, no extreme heat/humidity/altitude; roof is open but weather is neutral. → No bearing
Model vs market

Statistical model gives home 36%, draw 29%, away 35%; no market lines supplied for comparison. → Model is near even; I adjust upward for Turkey due to squad quality gap

What the agent checked on the web

Searched tavily for TUR · PAR — 6 sources kept

Agent scorelines

1–0 18%
0–0 17%
1–1 15%
0–1 14%
2–0 13%
2–1 11%

generated 2026-06-11

Last 5 — TUR

+1.30 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #47

BUL #88 +0.5
ESP #1 +0.7
ROM #47 +1.2
KOS #56 +1.4
VEN #45 +1.7

GF / GA last 10: 21 / 14

Last 5 — PAR

-0.12 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #51

MEX #21 +1.8
GRE #36 +1.9
MAR #12 -0.9
NIC #151 +0.3
USA #33 -1.1

GF / GA last 10: 13 / 13

Head-to-head (last 5)

No prior meetings in the dataset.

▸ Full score grid (7×7)

P(home goals × away goals), %

13.8

11.9

6.2

2.5

0.9

0.3

0.1

12.8

11.1

5.8

2.3

0.8

0.3

0.1

7.2

6.2

3.2

1.3

0.5

0.1

0.0

3.1

2.7

1.4

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.0

1.2

1.0

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

Rows = TUR goals; columns = PAR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)

1.15

TUR

1.05

PAR

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.