Germany vs Ivory Coast

Germany's perfect recent form and superior key-player quality (Havertz, Wirtz, Kimmich at elite clubs vs Ivory Coast's mid-tier stars) justify a slight upward adjustment from the model's 56% to 60%. The head-to-head is ancient, conditions are neutral, and no injuries affect key personnel, so the move is modest. Ivory Coast's strong recent form (4 wins) prevents a larger shift. Germany's expected goals (1.76) and Ivory Coast's (0.83) suggest a low-to-moderate scoring match. The most likely scorelines reflect Germany dominance: 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1. The 0-0 draw retains some probability due to Ivory Coast's defensive potential, but Germany's attacking quality (Havertz, Wirtz) pushes toward at least one goal.

• Recent form
  Germany won all five recent matches (WWWWW), Ivory Coast won four of five (WLWWW). → favours Germany
• Head-to-head
  Only one meeting, a 2-2 friendly draw in 2009, too old to be informative. → no bearing
• Availability
  No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Germany's key players (Havertz, Sané, Wirtz, Kimmich) are at top clubs (Arsenal, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Bayern) with high ratings; Ivory Coast's (Kessié, Pépé, Sangaré, Fofana, Seri) play at mid-tier clubs (Al-Ahli, Villarreal, Nottingham Forest, Rennes) with lower average ratings. → favours Germany
• Recent news
  Germany have an injured midfielder (Lennart Karl) but he is not listed as a key player; Ivory Coast played a friendly vs France (no result given) but no impact on availability. → no bearing
• Conditions
  23.1°C, overcast, moderate humidity (43%) — mild conditions, no extreme heat or altitude; BMO Field is open but climate is temperate. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives Germany 56% win; market lines not supplied, so prior stands as baseline. → no bearing

• 2–0 18%
• 1–0 18%
• 2–1 15%
• 1–1 13%
• 3–0 12%
• 0–0 11%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.