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Group H · Matchday 11 · 2026-06-21

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Miami Gardens, United States · neutral venue

Most likely scoreline

1–0 18.8%

63.7%

URU win

24.7%

Draw

11.4%

CPV win

Top scorelines

1–0 18.8%
0–0 14.9%
2–0 14.3%
3–0 8.4%

Total goals

0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat

URU win

73.3%

Draw

19.0%

CPV win

7.7%

The statistical model already reflects a large quality gap, and the key-player analysis strongly reinforces it: Uruguay's core plays for elite European and South American clubs, while Cape Verde's key players are at mid-level clubs. Cape Verde's recent form (8 pts) is slightly better than Uruguay's (5 pts), and they are a motivated debutant, but the squad quality disparity is too wide. I have increased Uruguay's win probability slightly from 64% to 70% to reflect the player-level gap, while keeping a modest draw chance (22%) because Cape Verde's recent form suggests they can be competitive. Uruguay's expected goals (1.71) and Cape Verde's (0.46) point to a low-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%), followed by 2-0 (16%). Cape Verde's defense has been solid in recent matches, but Uruguay's attack should find the net. A clean sheet for Uruguay is probable given Cape Verde's limited attacking threat against a top defense.

What the agent weighed

Recent form

Uruguay recent form: WDLDD (5 pts from 5 matches). Cape Verde recent form: DLDWW (8 pts from 5 matches). → favours Cape Verde slightly
Head-to-head

No previous meetings between Uruguay and Cape Verde. → no bearing
Availability

No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
Key players

Uruguay's key players include Valverde (Real Madrid), Giménez (Atlético Madrid), de Arrascaeta (Flamengo), Núñez (Al-Hilal) — all at top clubs. Cape Verde's key players are Ryan Mendes (Iğdır FK), Garry Rodrigues (Apollon Limassol), Hélio Varela (Maccabi Tel Aviv) — mostly in lower-tier leagues. → strongly favours Uruguay
Recent news

Cape Verde is making its World Cup debut (Yahoo Sports). Uruguay's team guide highlights their strong 2023 form (The Guardian). No specific tactical or injury news. → favours Uruguay (experience gap)
Conditions

Hard Rock Stadium: 31.6°C, feels 33.2°C, humidity 56%, wind 21.8 km/h. Roof is not climate-controlled; conditions are hot and windy. → no clear advantage — both teams from warm climates
Model vs market

Statistical model gives Uruguay 64% win, draw 25%, Cape Verde 11%. No market lines supplied. → prior baseline

What the agent checked on the web

Searched tavily for URU · CPV — 6 sources kept

Agent scorelines

1–0 22%
2–0 21%
2–1 13%
3–0 13%
0–0 12%
1–1 10%

generated 2026-06-11

Last 5 — URU

-0.55 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #28

UZB #54 +1.0
MEX #21 -0.5
USA #33 -1.6
ENG #4 +0.2
ALG #30 -0.8

GF / GA last 10: 10 / 9

Last 5 — CPV

+0.49 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #67

EGY #39 +0.1
CHI #27 -0.8
FIN #69 -0.2
SER #31 +2.2
BER #169 +0.2

GF / GA last 10: 19 / 9

Head-to-head (last 5)

No prior meetings in the dataset.

▸ Full score grid (7×7)

P(home goals × away goals), %

14.9

6.4

1.6

0.3

0.1

0.0

18.8

8.0

2.1

0.4

0.1

0.0

14.3

6.1

1.6

0.3

0.1

0.0

8.4

3.6

0.9

0.2

0.0

4.3

1.8

0.5

0.1

0.0

1.9

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.8

0.3

0.1

0.0

Rows = URU goals; columns = CPV goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)

1.69

URU

0.47

CPV

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.