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Group I · Matchday 12 · 2026-06-22

France vs Iraq

Philadelphia, United States · neutral venue

Most likely scoreline

1–0 16.9%

70.2%

FRA win

20.5%

Draw

9.0%

IRQ win

Top scorelines

1–0 16.9%
2–0 14.7%
0–0 11.7%
3–0 9.9%

Total goals

0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat

FRA win

82.3%

Draw

13.3%

IRQ win

4.3%

The model already heavily favours France (70% win, 2.05-0.45 xG), and the supplied intel only strengthens that case. France's recent form (4 wins in 5) and elite key players like Mbappé and Olise, who play at top clubs, dwarf Iraq's squad, which features lower-level players and a key forward (Aymen Hussein) who faced a 7-hour interrogation upon entering the USA, potentially affecting his focus. With no injuries and Dembélé returning, France's depth is even stronger. I moved France's win probability upward by 12 percentage points to 82%, reflecting the clear quality gap and the Hussein distraction. France's expected goals of 2.05 suggest they should score 2-3 goals against a weaker Iraq side. Iraq's xG of 0.45 indicates they are unlikely to score, though a consolation goal is possible. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 and 3-0, with 1-0 also plausible if France are wasteful. Clean sheet for France is probable given the disparity.

What the agent weighed

Recent form

France WWWLW (4 wins in last 5); Iraq LWWDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in last 5). → favours France
Head-to-head

No previous meetings. → no bearing
Key players

France features elite players like Mbappé (Real Madrid, 25G/5A this season) and Olise (Bayern, 15G/19A); Iraq's top scorer Aymen Hussein (72 caps, 25G) plays at a lower club level and was questioned for 7 hours upon US entry (news). → strongly favours France
Availability

No injuries reported for either side; Dembélé is set to return (foxsports.com). → favours France (Dembélé return adds depth)
Recent news

France's Deschamps dismissed injury fears and Dembélé is returning (foxsports.com); Iraq's Aymen Hussein was questioned for 7 hours at US entry (telecomasia.net), potentially disruptive. → favours France (Hussein disruption may affect Iraq)
Conditions

Philadelphia, 28.9°C, overcast, humidity 35%, wind 12.1 km/h, no extreme conditions. → no bearing
Model vs market

Model gives France 70% win, 2.05-0.45 expected goals; no market lines provided. → model already favours France heavily

What the agent checked on the web

Searched tavily for FRA · IRQ — 6 sources kept

Agent scorelines

2–0 22%
3–0 19%
1–0 17%
2–1 12%
4–0 10%
3–1 9%

generated 2026-06-11

Last 5 — FRA

+0.11 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #45

AZE #117 +0.3
BRA #3 +1.8
COL #8 +1.5
CIV #32 -2.3
NOR #67 +0.5

GF / GA last 10: 25 / 9

Last 5 — IRQ

+0.11 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #72

JOR #73 -1.3
BOL #72 +1.7
AND #168 +0.7
ESP #1 +0.8
VEN #45 -1.2

GF / GA last 10: 11 / 10

Head-to-head (last 5)

No prior meetings in the dataset.

▸ Full score grid (7×7)

P(home goals × away goals), %

11.7

4.9

1.2

0.2

0.0

16.9

7.1

1.8

0.3

0.1

0.0

14.7

6.1

1.5

0.3

0.1

0.0

9.9

4.2

1.0

0.2

0.0

5.8

2.4

0.6

0.1

0.0

3.0

1.3

0.3

0.1

0.0

1.5

0.6

0.2

0.0

Rows = FRA goals; columns = IRQ goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)

2.04

FRA

0.46

IRQ

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.