Jordan vs Algeria

The model already favours Algeria (52% win), but the supplied intel strengthens that case: Algeria's recent form (WLWDW) is far superior to Jordan's (LDDLL), and Algeria's key players are at a higher club level (Mahrez, Amoura, Bensebaïni vs. Tamari, Olwan). The head-to-head record, though sparse, also favours Algeria. I raise Algeria's win probability to 58%, lowering Jordan's to 18% and the draw to 24%. Algeria's expected goals (1.61) and Jordan's (0.88) suggest a low-scoring match with Algeria likely scoring 1-2 goals. The most probable scorelines are 0-1 (14%) and 0-2 (12%), with 1-1 (10%) as the top draw outcome. Jordan's defensive struggles and Algeria's solid attack support a clean sheet for Algeria.

• Recent form
  Jordan's last 5 matches: LDDLL (2 draws, 3 losses); Algeria's last 5: WLWDW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). → favours Algeria
• Head-to-head
  Two meetings: Algeria 1-1 Jordan (2004) and Algeria 6-0 Jordan (1974); limited sample but Algeria unbeaten. → favours Algeria
• Availability
  No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Algeria's key players (Mahrez, Amoura, Bensebaïni, Mandi) play at top clubs (Al-Ahli, Wolfsburg, Dortmund, Lille); Jordan's top players (Tamari at Rennes, Olwan at Al-Sailiya) are at lower-tier clubs. Algeria's squad quality is significantly higher. → favours Algeria
• Recent news
  Algeria extended coach Petkovic before World Cup (Houston Chronicle); Jordan's news includes squad announcement but no competitive edge. No relevant injury news for either side. → no bearing
• Conditions
  Levi's Stadium: 22.1°C, clear, humidity 43%, wind 14.1 km/h, no precipitation. Mild conditions, no extreme heat or altitude; roof not controlled but weather is neutral. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives Algeria 52% win probability; market lines not supplied. Given Algeria's clear squad advantage and recent form, I increase Algeria's win probability further. → favours Algeria

• 0–1 21%
• 0–2 18%
• 1–1 16%
• 0–0 14%
• 1–2 12%
• 0–3 11%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.