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Group C · Matchday 14 · 2026-06-24

Morocco vs Haiti

Atlanta, United States · neutral venue

Most likely scoreline

1–0 16.2%

72.2%

MAR win

19.1%

Draw

8.2%

HAI win

Top scorelines

1–0 16.2%
2–0 14.7%
0–0 10.7%
3–0 10.4%

Total goals

0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat

MAR win

81.7%

Draw

12.7%

HAI win

5.7%

The model already assigns Morocco a high win probability (72%) based on expected goals (2.18 vs 0.45). The supplied intel strongly reinforces this: Morocco's recent form is solid (DWWWD), while Haiti's is inconsistent (WLDWL). The key player gap is enormous — Morocco's attackers play for Real Madrid, PSG, and PSV, while Haiti's top scorers are at Esteghlal, AEK Athens, and Toronto FC. No injuries or conditions alter the picture. I raised Morocco's win probability to 80% to reflect the squad quality chasm, which is not fully captured by the model's generic rating. Morocco's expected goals of 2.18 suggest they will score 2-3 goals. Haiti's expected goals of 0.45 indicate they will struggle to score. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (18%), 3-0 (14%), and 1-0 (12%). A clean sheet for Morocco is probable given Haiti's weak attack against Morocco's strong defense (Hakimi at PSG).

What the agent weighed

Recent form

Morocco's last 5 matches: DWWWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Haiti's last 5: WLDWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). → favours Morocco
Head-to-head

No previous meetings between Morocco and Haiti. → no bearing
Availability

No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
Key players

Morocco's key attackers play for elite clubs: Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid), Hakimi (PSG), Saibari (PSV). Haiti's key attackers play for lower-tier clubs: Nazon (Esteghlal), Pierrot (AEK Athens), Deedson (unattached), Etienne (Toronto FC). → strongly favours Morocco
Recent news

News articles focus on Morocco's friendly vs Norway and Haiti's training base at Stockton University; no match-specific tactical or injury news. → no bearing
Conditions

Match played in Mercedes-Benz Stadium with climate-controlled roof; conditions neutralized. → no bearing
Model vs market

Model gives Morocco 72% win probability; no market lines supplied for comparison. → model already favours Morocco

What the agent checked on the web

Searched tavily for MAR · HAI — 6 sources kept

Agent scorelines

2–0 23%
3–0 19%
1–0 17%
2–1 13%
3–1 10%
4–0 7%

generated 2026-06-11

Last 5 — MAR

-0.00 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #61

ECU #16 -0.4
PAR #35 +1.3
BUR #122 +0.2
MAD #112 +0.2
NOR #19 -0.8

GF / GA last 10: 22 / 3

Last 5 — HAI

+0.14 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #76

NIC #151 +1.0
TUN #43 -0.7
ICE #61 +0.1
NZL #85 +1.5
PER #42 -0.8

GF / GA last 10: 15 / 10

Head-to-head (last 5)

No prior meetings in the dataset.

▸ Full score grid (7×7)

P(home goals × away goals), %

10.7

4.4

1.1

0.2

0.0

16.2

6.7

1.7

0.3

0.1

0.0

14.7

6.1

1.5

0.3

0.0

10.4

4.3

1.1

0.2

0.0

6.3

2.6

0.6

0.1

0.0

3.4

1.4

0.4

0.1

0.0

1.7

0.7

0.2

0.0

Rows = MAR goals; columns = HAI goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)

2.17

MAR

0.45

HAI

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.