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Group F · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25

Tunisia vs Netherlands

Kansas City, United States · neutral venue

Most likely scoreline

0–1 15.7%

18.2%

TUN win

25.8%

Draw

55.9%

NED win

Top scorelines

0–1 15.7%
0–0 13.0%
0–2 11.3%
1–1 9.7%

Total goals

0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat

TUN win

16.0%

Draw

25.3%

NED win

58.7%

The statistical model already favours the Netherlands (56% away win), and the supplied intel strengthens that lean. Tunisia's recent form is poor (DWDLL) and they lose key attacker Ezzalzouli to injury, while Netherlands bring a deep, high-quality squad with multiple elite attackers. The head-to-head is sparse and non-competitive, and conditions are neutral. I adjust the away probability upward to 60% to reflect the injury blow and form gap, slightly reducing home and draw probabilities. Netherlands are expected to dominate possession and create chances, with Tunisia likely defending deep. The most probable scoreline is 0-1 (15%), reflecting a narrow Dutch win, but 0-2 (12%) and 1-1 (11%) are also plausible. Tunisia's expected goals are low (0.70 model), so clean-sheet outcomes (0-0, 0-1, 0-2) dominate the top of the distribution.

What the agent weighed

Recent form

Tunisia DWDLL (2 draws, 2 losses in last 5); Netherlands WWDLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). → favours away
Head-to-head

Three meetings: 2009 friendly 1-1, 1994 friendly 2-2, 1978 friendly 0-4 to Netherlands. No competitive matches. → no bearing (limited sample, all friendlies)
Availability

No injuries listed for either side; Tunisia's Ezzalzouli is out 3-4 weeks (MCL) per telecomasia.net. → favours away (Tunisia lose key attacker Ezzalzouli)
Key players

Netherlands have elite attackers Depay (103 caps, 49G), Gakpo (52 caps, 21G, 8.58 rating), van Dijk (93 caps, 12G, 7.37 rating); Tunisia's top players are Skhiri (69 caps, 4G) and Talbi (52 caps, 3G) from lower-tier clubs. → favours away (significant quality gap)
Recent news

Ezzalzouli injury confirmed; Netherlands previews focus on title ambitions; Timber withdrew but Geertruida called up (telecomasia.net). → favours away (Tunisia weakened, Netherlands depth)
Conditions

Arrowhead Stadium: 24.9°C, clear, humidity 66%, wind 10.1 km/h, no roof closed. Moderate conditions, no extreme heat or altitude. → no bearing (neutral conditions)
Model vs market

Model gives away 56%, draw 26%, home 18%; no market lines supplied for comparison. → no bearing (no market to diverge from)

What the agent checked on the web

Searched tavily for TUN · NED — 6 sources kept

Agent scorelines

0–1 23%
0–2 17%
0–0 15%
1–1 15%
0–3 11%
1–2 11%

generated 2026-06-11

Last 5 — TUN

-0.36 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #44

MAL #48 -0.3
HAI #95 +0.9
CAN #44 -0.1
AUT #22 -0.9
BEL #10 -0.6

GF / GA last 10: 13 / 14

Last 5 — NED

-0.43 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #51

LIT #138 +0.1
NOR #19 +1.0
ECU #16 -0.8
ALG #30 -2.2
UZB #54 +0.6

GF / GA last 10: 22 / 8

Head-to-head (last 5)

2009-02-11 Tunisia 1–1 Netherlands
1994-01-19 Tunisia 2–2 Netherlands
1978-04-05 Tunisia 0–4 Netherlands

▸ Full score grid (7×7)

P(home goals × away goals), %

13.0

15.7

11.3

6.4

3.1

1.3

0.5

8.0

9.7

7.0

3.9

1.9

0.8

0.3

3.0

3.6

2.6

1.5

0.7

0.3

0.1

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

Rows = TUN goals; columns = NED goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)

0.7

TUN

1.59

NED

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.