Group D · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25
United States vs Turkey
Inglewood, United States
Most likely scoreline
1–1
9.9%
42.8%
USA win
23.8%
Draw
33.3%
TUR win
Top scorelines
- 1–1 9.9%
- 1–0 9.5%
- 0–1 8.3%
- 0–0 8.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
The agent’s call
3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chatUSA win
33.3%
Draw
27.7%
TUR win
39.0%
The model's prior slightly favours USA (42%) but recent form (Turkey 4W in 5, USA 2W) and head-to-head (Turkey won last meeting) point the other way. Key player ratings also favour Turkey, with Güler and Çalhanoglu outperforming USA's midfield. I shift probability from USA to Turkey, making Turkey the slight favourite (38%) and reducing USA to 35%, with draw at 27%. Both teams have decent attacking talent but Turkey's recent defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in last 5?) and USA's inconsistency suggest a low-to-moderate scoring match. The most likely scorelines are 1-1, 0-1, and 1-0, reflecting the tight expected goals (USA 1.52, Turkey 1.32).
What the agent weighed
-
Recent formUSA: WLLWL (2 wins in last 5); Turkey: WDWWW (4 wins in last 5, unbeaten). → favours Turkey
-
Head-to-headLast 5 meetings: USA 1 win, Turkey 3 wins, 1 draw; most recent 2025-06-07 USA 1-2 Turkey. → favours Turkey
-
AvailabilityNo injuries reported for either side. → no bearing
-
Key playersTurkey's key players (Çalhanoglu 7.36rtg, Güler 7.63rtg, Aktürkoglu 7.17rtg) have higher recent ratings than USA's (Pulisic 7.16, Balogun 7.02, McKennie 6.61). Turkey's top players play for Inter, Real Madrid, Fenerbahçe; USA's for AC Milan, Monaco, Juventus – comparable club level but Turkey's ratings edge. → slightly favours Turkey
-
Recent newsUSA news focuses on send-off match vs Germany (no result given); Turkey news mentions dark horse status and an injury to Ezzalzouli (not a key player listed). No decisive news. → no bearing
-
ConditionsSoFi Stadium: 24.4°C, clear, humidity 47%, wind 18.1 km/h, roof presumably open? But 24°C is mild; no extreme conditions. → no bearing
-
Model vs marketModel gives USA 42% win, draw 24%, Turkey 34%; no market lines supplied to compare. → prior is USA-favoured but intel pushes away from that
What the agent checked on the web
Searched tavily for
USA · TUR
— 6 sources kept
- USA: Starting XI and Lineup Notes: USMNT vs. Germany in the Coca-Cola Send-Off Match - US Soccer — ## Latest Stories. ### Brenden Aaronson Answers 26 Questions. ### Connections Abound in USMNT's Final Match Before FIFA World Cup 2026. Germany on Saturday, June 6. ## Latest Videos. # Starting XI and Lineu ussoccer.com · Sat, 06 Jun 2026 17:16:10 GMT
- USA: USA at the FIFA World Cup 2026: Co-Hosts Favoured to Top a Competitive Group D - Telecom Asia Sport — # USA at the FIFA World Cup 2026: Co-Hosts Favoured to Top a Competitive Group D. * Key Players: Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun. ## How USA national team qualified telecomasia.net · Mon, 08 Jun 2026 19:09:48 GMT
- USA: Starting XI and Lineup Notes: USMNT vs. Germany in the Coca-Cola Send-Off Match - US Soccer — ## Latest Stories. ### Connections Abound in USMNT's Final Match Before FIFA World Cup 2026. Germany on Saturday, June 6. ### USMNT Hosts 10th-Ranked Germany in Final Match Before FIFA World Cup 2026. ## La ussoccer.com · Sat, 06 Jun 2026 18:30:00 GMT
- TUR: Turkey at the FIFA World Cup 2026: Dark Horses Target Knockout Berth in Group D - Telecom Asia Sport — # Turkey at the FIFA World Cup 2026: Dark Horses Target Knockout Berth in Group D. * Key Players: Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, Hakan Calhanoglu, Orkun Kokcu. ## How Turkey national team qualified for telecomasia.net · Mon, 08 Jun 2026 18:51:42 GMT
- TUR: BREAKING: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Set for 3–4 Weeks Out After Suspected MCL Injury Ahead of World Cup Opener - Telecom Asia Sport — # BREAKING: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Set for 3–4 Weeks Out After Suspected MCL Injury Ahead of World Cup Opener. The Real Betis attacker picked up the injury in the first ha telecomasia.net · Mon, 08 Jun 2026 10:42:23 GMT
- TUR: Where is Neymar? Why Brazil star is missing final World Cup warm-up vs. Egypt - sportingnews.com — Why Brazil star is missing final World Cup warm-up vs. Brazil face Egypt in their final pre-World Cup friendly in Cleveland on Saturday. Here's all we know about Neymar's status with the start of the W sportingnews.com · Sat, 06 Jun 2026 07:23:41 GMT
Agent scorelines
- 1–1 17%
- 0–1 16%
- 1–2 15%
- 1–0 14%
- 0–2 12%
- 0–0 11%
generated 2026-06-11
Last 5 — USA
+0.37 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #16
- BEL #10 -1.0
- POR #6 -0.9
- SEN #20 +1.6
- GER #7 -0.9
- PAR #35 +1.4
GF / GA last 10: 22 / 16
Last 5 — TUR
+1.30 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #47
- BUL #88 +0.5
- ESP #1 +0.7
- ROM #47 +1.2
- KOS #56 +1.4
- VEN #45 +1.7
GF / GA last 10: 21 / 14
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2025-06-07 United States 1–2 Turkey
- 2014-06-01 United States 2–1 Turkey
- 2010-05-29 United States 2–1 Turkey
- 2003-06-19 Turkey 2–1 United States
- 1991-09-04 Turkey 1–1 United States
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8.0
8.3
5.2
2.5
1.1
0.4
0.1
1
9.5
9.9
6.2
3.0
1.3
0.5
0.2
2
6.8
7.1
4.4
2.1
0.9
0.3
0.1
3
3.8
3.9
2.5
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.1
4
1.8
1.9
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = USA goals; columns = TUR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.56
USA
1.32
TUR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.