New Zealand vs Belgium

The model already prices Belgium as heavy favourites (73%) and no supplied intel contradicts that. Belgium's recent form (WWDWW) and star-studded squad (De Bruyne, Lukaku, Tielemans) dwarf New Zealand's modest attack (Wood, Barbarouses) and poor form (LLWLL). The lack of head-to-head or injury news leaves the prior intact. I keep the model's probabilities unchanged. Belgium's expected goals (2.24) and New Zealand's (0.46) suggest a low-scoring match for the underdog. The most likely scorelines are 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, consistent with a Belgium clean sheet. New Zealand's best hope is a 0-0 draw (10%) or a 1-1 (7%) if they catch Belgium off guard.

• Recent form
  New Zealand's last five results: LLWLL (losses to England, etc.). Belgium's last five: WWDWW (wins against strong opposition). → favours away win
• Head-to-head
  No previous meetings between New Zealand and Belgium. → no bearing
• Availability
  No injuries reported for either side; both squads at full strength. → no bearing
• Key players
  Belgium's top players (De Bruyne, Tielemans, Lukaku, Trossard) play for elite clubs (Napoli, Aston Villa, Arsenal) with high ratings (7.2–8.1); New Zealand's best (Wood, Barbarouses) play for mid-level clubs (Nottingham Forest, Western Sydney) with lower ratings (6.5–6.9). → strongly favours away win
• Recent news
  Sky Sports Group G guide confirms Belgium as group favourites; New Zealand chasing first-ever World Cup win (Yahoo Sports). → favours away win
• Conditions
  Match in BC Place with covered roof; no weather impact. Neutral venue in Vancouver. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives Belgium 73% win probability; no market lines supplied to compare. → no adjustment needed

• 0–1 22%
• 0–2 19%
• 0–3 14%
• 0–0 14%
• 1–2 11%
• 1–1 9%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.