Group I · Matchday 16 · 2026-06-26
Senegal vs Iraq
Toronto, Canada · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
18.7%
53.0%
SEN win
29.6%
Draw
17.4%
IRQ win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 18.7%
- 0–0 17.8%
- 2–0 11.8%
- 1–1 9.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
The agent’s call
3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chatSEN win
60.0%
Draw
25.0%
IRQ win
15.0%
Senegal’s squad is clearly superior, with elite players like Mané and Sarr against Iraq’s modest talent. Iraq’s top scorer Aymen Hussein faced a 7-hour interrogation upon entering the USA, a potential distraction. The model’s 53% home win is a reasonable prior, but the quality gap and news push it higher to 60%. Draw and away win probabilities are reduced accordingly. Senegal’s expected goals of 1.34 and Iraq’s 0.57 from the model reflect a low-scoring affair. With Senegal’s attack and Iraq’s likely defensive approach, 1-0 and 2-0 are the most probable scorelines. The chance of a clean sheet for Senegal is elevated given Iraq’s limited attacking threat.
What the agent weighed
-
Recent formSenegal recent form LWWLD (last 5: loss, win, win, loss, draw) vs Iraq LWWDL (loss, win, win, draw, loss); both inconsistent, no clear edge. → no bearing
-
Head-to-headNo previous meetings between Senegal and Iraq. → no bearing
-
Key playersSenegal features elite attackers Sadio Mané (91 caps, 47 goals, recent 7.47 rating) and Ismaila Sarr (69 caps, 17 goals, recent 7.06 rating), plus midfielders Idrissa Gueye (99 caps, 7.4 rating) and Pape Gueye (39 caps, 7.2 rating) — all playing for top European clubs. Iraq’s best player Aymen Hussein (72 caps, 25 goals, recent 6.97 rating) plays domestically; others like Bayesh (6.84) and Amyn (6.77) are at lower-tier clubs. Senegal’s squad quality is significantly higher. → favours Senegal
-
Injuries / availabilityNo injuries reported for either side; both teams at full strength. → no bearing
-
Recent newsNews: Senegal’s Ezzalzouli injury (not a key player for Senegal) and Iraq’s Aymen Hussein being questioned at US entry (off-field distraction) — both minor. Fox Sports article notes Senegal’s World Cup tune-up, Sky Sports group guide confirms Senegal as second-favourites in Group I. → marginally favours Senegal (distraction for Iraq’s top scorer)
-
ConditionsBMO Field open-air in Toronto, no kickoff forecast; neutral conditions, no extreme heat/altitude. No climate advantage. → no bearing
-
Model vs marketModel gives Senegal 53% win probability; no market lines supplied. Given strong squad quality gap and Iraq’s off-field distraction, I raise Senegal’s win probability to 60%. → favours Senegal (above model)
What the agent checked on the web
Searched tavily for
SEN · IRQ
— 6 sources kept
- SEN: 3 Things I Learned On USA's Sideline During Senegal World Cup Tune-Up - FOX Sports — FIFA Men's World Cup. FIFA Men's World Cup. 3. ### 2026 World Cup Odds: Spain Narrowly Favored Over France### 2026 World Cup Odds: Which Player Will Lead the Tournament in Assists?### 4 Players Who Could Steal The S foxsports.com · Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:24:13 GMT
- SEN: BREAKING: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Set for 3–4 Weeks Out After Suspected MCL Injury Ahead of World Cup Opener - Telecom Asia Sport — # BREAKING: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Set for 3–4 Weeks Out After Suspected MCL Injury Ahead of World Cup Opener. The Real Betis attacker picked up the injury in the first ha telecomasia.net · Mon, 08 Jun 2026 10:42:23 GMT
- SEN: World Cup 2026 Group I guide - fixtures, schedule, standings and odds for France, Senegal, Iraq and Norway - Sky Sports — # World Cup 2026 Group I guide - fixtures, schedule, standings and odds for France, Senegal, Iraq and Norway. World Cup Group I includes 2022 runners-up France, Senegal, Iraq and skysports.com · Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:35:57 GMT
- IRQ: Iraq National Football Team Forward Hussein Questioned for 7 Hours Upon Entering the USA - Telecom Asia Sport — # Iraq National Football Team Forward Hussein Questioned for 7 Hours Upon Entering the USA. **According to L'Equipe, Iraq national football team forward Aymen Hussein experienced some trou telecomasia.net · Sat, 06 Jun 2026 19:42:38 GMT
- IRQ: Iraq: 2026 World Cup Squad, Fixtures and Schedule - Yahoo Sports — * Stanley Cup Final tied 1-1. # Iraq: 2026 World Cup Squad, Fixtures and Schedule. **Iraq end a 40-year wait at the FIFA World Cup this summer as the Lions of Mesopotamia return to football’s biggest stage for the first time since Me sports.yahoo.com · Fri, 05 Jun 2026 11:25:00 GMT
- IRQ: What to know about Iraq soccer ahead of the 2026 Men's World Cup - Yahoo Sports — The 2026 FIFA World Cup is under a week away, and the final team to qualify for this summer's tournament will be making its way through Boston. The Iraq Men's National Team, which defeated Bolivia 3-1 on March 31 in an sports.yahoo.com · Fri, 05 Jun 2026 08:01:04 GMT
Agent scorelines
- 1–0 23%
- 2–0 18%
- 0–0 16%
- 1–1 15%
- 2–1 12%
- 3–0 8%
generated 2026-06-11
Last 5 — SEN
-0.38 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #49
- MAR #12 -0.9
- PER #42 +1.4
- GAM #89 +0.5
- USA #33 -1.3
- KSA #70 -0.8
GF / GA last 10: 16 / 9
Last 5 — IRQ
+0.11 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #72
- JOR #73 -1.3
- BOL #72 +1.7
- AND #168 +0.7
- ESP #1 +0.8
- VEN #45 -1.2
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
17.8
9.2
2.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
18.7
9.6
3.0
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
11.8
6.1
1.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
5.8
3.0
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
2.5
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = SEN goals; columns = IRQ goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.33
SEN
0.57
IRQ
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.