Algeria vs Austria

The model prior already gives Austria a 40% win probability, and the supplied intel consistently supports an Austrian edge. Austria's recent form (4 wins in 5) is stronger than Algeria's (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). The only head-to-head result is an Austria win. Key player analysis shows Austria's core (Sabitzer, Baumgartner, Alaba) have higher recent ratings and play at stronger clubs than Algeria's (Mahrez, Amoura). No injuries or conditions offset this. Therefore, I nudge the away win probability slightly higher to 42%, with home win reduced to 30% and draw at 28%. The model expects low scoring (Algeria 1.14, Austria 1.32 xG). Austria's defensive solidity (Alaba, etc.) and Algeria's modest attack suggest a 0-1 or 1-1 outcome is most likely. The 0-1 scoreline is the top model line at 12%, and I keep it as most probable. Other scorelines reflect a tight match with Austria slightly more likely to score.

• Recent form
  Algeria recent form: WLWDW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in last 5). Austria recent form: WDWWW (4 wins, 1 draw). Austria has stronger recent momentum. → favours Austria
• Head-to-head
  Only meeting: 1982 World Cup, Austria 2-0 Algeria. Historical result favours Austria. → favours Austria
• Availability
  No injuries reported for either side. Full squads available. → no bearing
• Key players
  Algeria's top players: Mahrez (Al-Ahli, 7.33 rating), Amoura (Wolfsburg, 6.89), Bensebaïni (Dortmund, 7.33), Mandi (Lille, 7.05), Boulbina (Al-Duhail, 6.62). Austria's top players: Arnautovic (Crvena Zvezda, 7.19), Sabitzer (Dortmund, 7.66), Gregoritsch (Augsburg, 7.03), Baumgartner (RB Leipzig, 7.13), Alaba (Real Madrid, 7.19). Austria's key players have higher recent ratings and play at stronger clubs on average. → favours Austria
• Recent news
  Algeria news: coach Petkovic extended contract (Houston Chronicle). Austria news: Guardian team guide notes Austria's strong qualifying; Ezzalzouli injury reported (Telecom Asia) but he is not a key player for Algeria (not in key players list). No significant news affecting match outcome. → no bearing
• Conditions
  Match in Kansas City, open-air Arrowhead Stadium. No kickoff-time forecast available. No extreme conditions reported; neutral venue for both teams. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model prior: home 33%, draw 27%, away 40%. No market lines supplied. Model already favours Austria. Intel (form, H2H, key players) reinforces Austria advantage, so I lean slightly further toward Austria. → favours Austria

• 0–1 18%
• 1–1 17%
• 0–0 14%
• 0–2 14%
• 1–2 14%
• 1–0 11%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.