Croatia vs Ghana

Croatia's recent form (WWLLW) is far superior to Ghana's (LLLLD), and their key players are at stronger clubs (Modric, Perisic, Kramaric vs Ayew, Partey). The news of Ezzalzouli's injury further weakens Ghana's attacking depth. The model's 58% home win is a reasonable prior, but the gap in form and squad quality justifies a modest increase to 65% for Croatia, with draw and away win reduced accordingly. Croatia's expected goals (1.65) suggest they are likely to score 1-2 goals, while Ghana's low xG (0.68) points to a low-scoring output. The most probable scorelines reflect a Croatia win to nil (1-0, 2-0) or a narrow 1-1 draw. The 0-0 is less likely given Croatia's attacking quality but still possible if Ghana defend deep.

• Recent form
  Croatia: WWLLW (two wins in last five); Ghana: LLLLD (no wins, four losses, one draw). → favours Croatia
• Head-to-head
  No previous meetings between these teams. → no bearing
• Availability
  No injuries reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Croatia's midfield features Modric (AC Milan), Perisic (PSV), Kramaric (Hoffenheim), Pasalic (Atalanta), Vlasic (Torino) — all at top European clubs. Ghana's key players include Ayew (Leicester), Partey (club not specified but likely top level), Williams (Athletic Club), Nuamah, Fatawu (Leicester). Croatia's players are more established at elite clubs. → favours Croatia
• Recent news
  Modric equals Messi's caps (source: telecomasia.net). Ghana's Ezzalzouli out 3-4 weeks with MCL injury (source: telecomasia.net). → Ezzalzouli absence weakens Ghana; Modric milestone may boost Croatia morale
• Conditions
  Open-air stadium in Philadelphia, no kickoff-time forecast; no extreme conditions noted. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives Croatia 58% win, 25% draw, 17% loss; no market data supplied. → prior is a starting point

• 1–0 22%
• 2–0 19%
• 0–0 15%
• 1–1 13%
• 2–1 12%
• 3–0 10%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.