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Group J · ARG

Argentina

Strength

87.3

± 1.8

Attack

84.5

0–100

Defense

87.5

0–100

P(champion)

11.76%

19.3% reach final

Strength trajectory

86.4 → 87.4 · +1.0

2023-03-31 range 86.2–87.8 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

11.76%

to lift

Polymarket

7.7%

implied · +4.1pp

Kalshi

8.2%

implied · +3.6pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

74.2%

R16

63.0%

Quarter

46.0%

Semi

31.5%

Final

19.3%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estadio Mâs Monumental

Buenos Aires · 85,018 seats (WC avg 55,865; +29,153)

Age profile

mean 28.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 E. Martínez 33 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

59 caps · 29 since 2024 (7.05rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.98 rtg
12 G. Rulli 33 yr

Marseille · Ligue 1

7 caps · 3 since 2024 (7.37rtg)
1 J. Musso 31 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

3 caps · 1 since 2024

DEF Defenders · 8

19 N. Otamendi 37 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

129 caps · 7G · 28 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.14rtg) | club 2G · 7.41 rtg
3 N. Tagliafico 33 yr

Lyon · Ligue 1

75 caps · 1G · 26 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.05rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 6.68 rtg
26 N. Molina 27 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

59 caps · 1G · 29 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.83rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.79 rtg
13 C. Romero 27 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

49 caps · 3G · 27 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.32rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 7.13 rtg
4 G. Montiel 28 yr

River Plate · Liga Profesional Argentina

38 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.78rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 7.22 rtg
6 Lisandro Martínez 27 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

26 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.17rtg)
2 L. Balerdi 26 yr

Marseille · Ligue 1

11 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.77rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.91 rtg
25 F. Medina 26 yr

Marseille · Ligue 1

7 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.7rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.81 rtg

MID Midfielders · 9

5 L. Paredes 31 yr

Boca Juniors · Liga Profesional Argentina

80 caps · 5G · 26 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.05rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 7.76 rtg
7 R. De Paul 31 yr

Inter Miami · Major League Soccer

86 caps · 2G · 32 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.36rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 7.12 rtg
11 G. Lo Celso 29 yr

Real Betis · La Liga

66 caps · 4G · 22 since 2024 (2G/3A · 7.46rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 7.01 rtg
20 A. Mac Allister 27 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

45 caps · 6G · 28 since 2024 (5G/2A · 7.12rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 6.71 rtg
24 E. Fernández Top minutes 24 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

40 caps · 6G · 27 since 2024 (4G/5A · 7.34rtg) | club 10G · 4A · 7.18 rtg
14 E. Palacios 27 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

42 caps · 17 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.8rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.09 rtg
16 T. Almada 24 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

14 caps · 4G · 10 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.27rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
17 G. Simeone 23 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

11 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.85rtg) | club 4G · 6A · 6.93 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 6

10 L. Messi Top scorer 38 yr

Inter Miami · Major League Soccer

172 caps · 106G · 23 since 2024 (12G/7A · 7.89rtg) | club 35G · 23A · 8.6 rtg
22 Lautaro Martínez 28 yr

Inter · Serie A

75 caps · 36G · 27 since 2024 (15G/4A · 7.15rtg) | club 17G · 6A · 7.08 rtg
9 J. Álvarez 25 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

52 caps · 14G · 30 since 2024 (7G/3A · 7.02rtg) | club 8G · 4A · 6.97 rtg
15 N. González 27 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

51 caps · 6G · 27 since 2024 (2G/4A · 7.04rtg) | club 5G · 6.91 rtg
18 N. Paz 21 yr

Como · Serie A

8 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.18rtg) | club 12G · 6A · 7.31 rtg
21 J. López 25 yr

Palmeiras · Serie A

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 12G · 2A · 7.21 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

8 V. Barco 21 yr

Strasbourg · 2c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 3–0 vs Iceland

W 2–0 vs Honduras

W 5–0 vs Zambia

W 2–1 vs Mauritania

W 2–0 @ Angola

W 6–0 v Puerto Rico

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(ARG win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	H vs Algeria (ALG)	63.2%	22.8%
2026-06-22	H vs Austria (AUT)	59.1%	25.1%
2026-06-27	A vs Jordan (JOR)	75.0%	17.4%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

84.1/100

vs model strength -3.2

Top-5 leagues

75%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	5	23.6%	100
La Liga	Spain	7	20.5%	95
Ligue 1	France	5	19.0%	80
Serie A	Italy	2	10.1%	88
Major League Soccer	USA	2	8.9%	50
Liga Profesional Argentina	Argentina	2	6.6%	62
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	5.2%	70
Serie A	Brazil	1	4.0%	70
Bundesliga	Germany	1	2.2%	90

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -3.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources