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Group D · AUS · outside top-16

Australia

Strength

76.7

± 1.5

Attack

74.7

0–100

Defense

77.4

0–100

P(champion)

0.44%

1.5% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.7 → 76.7 · +1.0

2023-03-31 range 75.6–76.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.44%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.3pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

22.8%

R16

32.5%

Quarter

12.3%

Semi

4.4%

Final

1.5%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Accor Stadium

Sydney · 82,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +26,135)

Age profile

mean 26.4 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 M. Ryan 33 yr

Levante · La Liga

102 caps · 13 since 2024 (7.08rtg)
12 P. Izzo 30 yr

Randers FC · Superliga

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (7.83rtg)
18 P. Beach 22 yr

Melbourne City · A-League

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.7rtg)

DEF Defenders · 8

19 H. Souttar 27 yr

Leicester · Championship

39 caps · 11G · 15 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.900000000000001rtg) | club 1G · 8.2 rtg
2 M. Degenek 31 yr

TSC Backa Topola · Super Liga

54 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 1G · 6.86 rtg
5 J. Bos 23 yr

Feyenoord · Eredivisie

26 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.5383838383838375rtg) | club 4G · 7A · 7.19 rtg
21 C. Burgess 30 yr

Swansea · Championship

29 caps · 22 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.9rtg)
3 A. Circati Top minutes 22 yr

Parma · Serie A

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.9rtg) | club 1G · 6.99 rtg
6 J. Geria 32 yr

Albirex Niigata · J1 League

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
4 J. Italiano 24 yr

Grazer AK · Bundesliga

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.400892857142858rtg) | club 4G · 7.12 rtg
25 L. Herrington 18 yr

Brisbane Roar · A-League

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.434328358208955rtg) | club 1G · 7.12 rtg

MID Midfielders · 9

22 J. Irvine 32 yr

FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

83 caps · 13G · 20 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.7 rtg
16 A. Behich 35 yr

Melbourne City · A-League

81 caps · 3G · 18 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.7rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 7.13 rtg
11 A. Mabil 30 yr

Castellón · Segunda División

36 caps · 8G · 3 since 2024 (8G/0A · 7.15rtg) | club 3G · 6A · 6.69 rtg
10 A. Hrustic 29 yr

Heracles · Eredivisie

36 caps · 4G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.97rtg) | club 1G · 6A · 6.83 rtg
8 C. Metcalfe 26 yr

FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

35 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/5A · 6.941071428571429rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.56 rtg
13 A. O Neill 27 yr

New York City FC · Major League Soccer

30 caps · 20 since 2024 (6.779464285714285rtg)
14 C. Devlin 27 yr

Heart Of Midlothian · Premiership

5 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.9rtg) | club 2G · 7.16 rtg
24 Paul Okon-Engstler 20 yr

Sydney · A-League

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.397872340425532rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 7.21 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 6

7 M. Leckie Top scorer 34 yr

Melbourne City · A-League

83 caps · 14G · 4 since 2024 (14G/0A · 6.7rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
23 N. Velupillay 24 yr

Melbourne Victory · A-League

32 caps · 6G · 32 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.65rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.78 rtg
17 N. Irankunda 19 yr

Watford · Championship

14 caps · 3G · 14 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.287654320987654rtg) | club 4G · 4A · 6.85 rtg
9 M. Touré 21 yr

Randers FC · Superliga

11 caps · 2G · 10 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.442424242424242rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 6.79 rtg
20 C. Volpato 22 yr

Sassuolo · Serie A

| club 2G · 4A · 6.75 rtg
26 T. Yengi 25 yr

Livingston · Premiership

| club 2G · 6.76 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

15 K. Trewin 24 yr

Melbourne City · 5c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 @ SUI

L 0–1 v MEX

W 5–1 vs CUW

W 1–0 vs Cameroon

L 0–3 v COL

L 0–1 v Venezuela

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(AUS win)	P(draw)
2026-06-13	H vs Turkey (TUR)	35.7%	27.6%
2026-06-19	A vs United States (USA)	31.6%	26.9%
2026-06-25	A vs Paraguay (PAR)	35.4%	32.5%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

59.3/100

vs model strength -17.4

Top-5 leagues

20%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
A-League	Australia	7	23.5%	42
Championship	England	3	13.9%	55
Eredivisie	Netherlands	2	9.4%	72
Serie A	Italy	2	8.2%	88
Premiership	Scotland	2	7.6%	50
Superliga	Denmark	2	7.6%	50
La Liga	Spain	1	7.1%	95
Bundesliga	Germany	2	4.9%	90
Bundesliga	Austria	1	4.5%	52
Major League Soccer	USA	1	4.1%	50
Segunda División	Spain	1	3.8%	50
J1 League	Japan	1	3.2%	55
Super Liga	Serbia	1	2.3%	45

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -17.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources