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Group C · BRA

Brazil

Strength

87.2

± 1.7

Attack

85.9

0–100

Defense

86.1

0–100

P(champion)

12.88%

20.6% reach final

Strength trajectory

90.7 → 87.5 · -3.2

2023-03-31 range 87.5–90.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

12.88%

to lift

Polymarket

8.2%

implied · +4.7pp

Kalshi

7.8%

implied · +5.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

69.4%

R16

70.6%

Quarter

50.5%

Semi

33.6%

Final

20.6%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Maracanã

Rio de Janeiro · 78,838 seats (WC avg 55,865; +22,973)

Age profile

mean 28.3 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 Alisson Becker 33 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

79 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
23 Ederson 32 yr

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

33 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.73rtg)
12 Weverton 38 yr

Palmeiras · Serie A

11 caps · 1 since 2024 (6.6rtg)

DEF Defenders · 9

4 Marquinhos 31 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

104 caps · 7G · 26 since 2024 (1G/0A · 5.9rtg)
13 Danilo 34 yr

Flamengo · Supercopa do Brasil

71 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.916528925619835rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 7.227027 rtg
6 Alex Sandro 34 yr

Flamengo · Supercopa do Brasil

46 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.385714285714286rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
3 Gabriel Magalhães 28 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

20 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.25rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 7.36 rtg
14 Bremer 28 yr

Juventus · Serie A

9 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.549438202247191rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 7.13 rtg
2 Wesley 22 yr

AS Roma · Serie A

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.445161290322581rtg) | club 5G · 7.02 rtg
24 Ibañez 27 yr

Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League

8 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.743617021276595rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 7.31 rtg
16 Douglas Santos 31 yr

Zenit · Premier League

8 caps · 7 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.763333333333333rtg) | club 1G · 7.18 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 6

5 Casemiro 33 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

87 caps · 10G · 16 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.3rtg) | club 9G · 2A · 7.19 rtg
20 Lucas Paquetá 28 yr

West Ham · Premier League

64 caps · 14G · 22 since 2024 (5G/5A · 7.751063829787234rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
11 Raphinha 29 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

40 caps · 11G · 24 since 2024 (6G/4A · 6.532758620689655rtg) | club 13G · 3A · 7.55 rtg
8 Bruno Guimarães 28 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

44 caps · 3G · 32 since 2024 (2G/4A · 7.4rtg) | club 9G · 5A · 7.47 rtg
17 Fabinho 32 yr

Al-Ittihad FC · Pro League

34 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.13 rtg
18 Danilo Santos 24 yr

Botafogo · Serie A

5 caps · 2G · 5 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.28494623655914rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 7.008333 rtg

ATT Attackers · 8

10 Neymar Top scorer 33 yr

Santos · Serie A

128 caps · 79G · 4 since 2024 (2G/3A · 7.98rtg) | club 8G · 1A · 7.37 rtg
7 Vinícius Júnior 25 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

50 caps · 10G · 27 since 2024 (7G/5A · 7.6rtg) | club 16G · 5A · 7.51 rtg
22 Gabriel Martinelli 24 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

25 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 6.6 rtg
19 Endrick 19 yr

Lyon · Ligue 1

18 caps · 4G · 18 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.567741935483871rtg) | club 5G · 7A · 7.09 rtg
9 Matheus Cunha 26 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

24 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.394382022471911rtg) | club 10G · 2A · 7.13 rtg
21 Luiz Henrique 24 yr

Zenit · Premier League

16 caps · 2G · 16 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.300000000000001rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 6.99 rtg
25 Thiago Top minutes 24 yr

Brentford · Premier League

5 caps · 2G · 5 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.13404255319149rtg) | club 22G · 1A · 6.94 rtg
26 Rayan 19 yr

Vasco DA Gama · Serie A

2 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.9rtg) | club 14G · 1A · 7.17 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

15 Léo Pereira 29 yr

Flamengo · 5c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–1 vs EGY

W 6–2 vs PAN

W 3–1 v CRO

L 1–2 v FRA

D 1–1 v TUN

W 2–0 v SEN

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(BRA win)	P(draw)
2026-06-13	H vs Morocco (MAR)	46.0%	32.0%
2026-06-19	H vs Haiti (HAI)	82.7%	9.8%
2026-06-24	A vs Scotland (SCO)	64.9%	22.0%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

81.3/100

vs model strength -5.9

Top-5 leagues

53%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	8	33.0%	100
Serie A	Brazil	5	18.7%	70
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	2	8.9%	60
Supercopa do Brasil	Brazil	2	8.9%	70
Serie A	Italy	2	8.2%	88
La Liga	Spain	2	7.5%	95
Premier League	Russia	2	7.0%	55
Ligue 1	France	2	4.0%	80
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	3.8%	60

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -5.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources