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Group B · CAN · outside top-16

Canada

Strength

74.8

± 1.4

Attack

73.7

0–100

Defense

74.9

0–100

P(champion)

0.32%

1.4% reach final

Strength trajectory

74.3 → 74.7 · +0.4

2023-03-31 range 73.5–75.2 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.32%

to lift

Polymarket

0.2%

implied · +0.1pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

35.2%

R16

43.6%

Quarter

15.2%

Semi

4.6%

Final

1.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

BMO Field

Toronto · 45,736 seats (WC avg 55,865; -10,129)

Age profile

mean 26.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

16 M. Crépeau 31 yr

Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer

37 caps · 19 since 2024 (7.0rtg)
1 D. St. Clair 28 yr

Minnesota United FC · Major League Soccer

28 caps · 20 since 2024 (6.73rtg)
18 O. Goodman 22 yr

Barnsley · League One

DEF Defenders · 8

19 A. Davies 25 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

58 caps · 15G · 13 since 2024 (15G/0A · 6.78rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.84 rtg
22 R. Laryea 30 yr

Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

70 caps · 1G · 28 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.637704918032787rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.84 rtg
2 A. Johnston 27 yr

Celtic · League Cup

57 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.0rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 7.2 rtg
13 D. Cornelius 28 yr

Rangers · League Cup

47 caps · 1G · 26 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.85rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.911111 rtg
4 L. De Fougerolles 20 yr

Dender · Jupiler Pro League

20 caps · 17 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.93758389261745rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.78 rtg
15 M. Bombito 26 yr

Nice · Ligue 1

20 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.02rtg)
5 J. Waterman 29 yr

CF Montreal · Major League Soccer

19 caps · 16 since 2024 (6.85rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.85 rtg
3 A. Jones 28 yr

Middlesbrough · Championship

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.9rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.92 rtg

MID Midfielders · 11

21 J. Osorio 33 yr

Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

94 caps · 11G · 23 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.6rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 7.03 rtg
17 T. Buchanan 26 yr

Villarreal · La Liga

55 caps · 7G · 23 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.554716981132075rtg) | club 7G · 1A · 6.81 rtg
7 S. Eustáquio 29 yr

FC Porto · Primeira Liga

57 caps · 4G · 22 since 2024 (4G/0A · 7.099253731343284rtg)
8 I. Koné Top minutes 23 yr

Sassuolo · Serie A

40 caps · 3G · 25 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.8rtg) | club 6G · 7.03 rtg
11 L. Millar 26 yr

Hull City · Championship

42 caps · 18 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.027358490566039rtg) | club 3G · 5A · 6.82 rtg
14 J. Shaffelburg 26 yr

Nashville SC · Major League Soccer

28 caps · 6G · 22 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
20 A. Ahmed 25 yr

Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer

30 caps · 1G · 24 since 2024 (1G/4A · 6.7rtg) | club 1G · 10A · 7.3 rtg
6 M. Choinière 26 yr

Los Angeles FC · Major League Soccer

26 caps · 24 since 2024 (6.86rtg) | club 1G · 7.0 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 4

9 C. Larin Top scorer 30 yr

Southampton · Championship

96 caps · 35G · 22 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.555932203389831rtg) | club 8G · 1A · 6.72 rtg
10 J. David 25 yr

Juventus · Serie A

72 caps · 34G · 30 since 2024 (11G/4A · 6.627480916030534rtg) | club 6G · 4A · 6.43 rtg
12 T. Oluwaseyi 25 yr

Minnesota United FC · Major League Soccer

26 caps · 2G · 26 since 2024 (2G/6A · 6.634710743801652rtg) | club 10G · 7A · 7.2 rtg
24 P. David 24 yr

Union St. Gilloise · Super Cup

10 caps · 2G · 10 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.463265306122449rtg) | club 16G · 4A · 6.990322 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

23 N. Sigur 22 yr

HNK Hajduk Split · 18c/2g
25 N. Saliba 21 yr

Anderlecht · 13c/2g
26 M. Flores 22 yr

Tigres UANL · 2c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 vs BIH

W 2–0 vs UZB

D 0–0 vs TUN

D 2–2 vs Iceland

W 2–0 v Venezuela

D 0–0 vs ECU

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(CAN win)	P(draw)
2026-06-12	H vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH)	53.0%	24.3%
2026-06-18	H vs Qatar (QAT)	62.9%	20.1%
2026-06-24	H vs Switzerland (SUI)	30.2%	25.3%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

58.4/100

vs model strength -16.4

Top-5 leagues

18%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Major League Soccer	USA	9	36.7%	50
Championship	England	3	12.3%	55
Serie A	Italy	2	11.4%	88
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	2	10.1%	65
HNL	Croatia	1	5.6%	55
League Cup	Scotland	2	5.1%	50
League One	England	1	5.0%	45
La Liga	Spain	1	4.6%	95
Super Cup (unrated)		1	4.5%	30
Liga MX	Mexico	1	2.4%	50
Bundesliga	Germany	1	1.3%	90
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	0.5%	70
Ligue 1	France	1	0.4%	80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -16.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources