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Group K · COD · outside top-16

DR Congo

Strength

72.3

± 1.8

Attack

69.0

0–100

Defense

74.6

0–100

P(champion)

0.04%

0.2% reach final

Strength trajectory

69.3 → 72.3 · +3.0

2023-03-31 range 69.3–72.3 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.04%

to lift

Kalshi

0.5%

implied · -0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

4.3%

R16

10.7%

Quarter

3.2%

Semi

0.9%

Final

0.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stade des Martyrs

Kinshasa · 80,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +24,135)

Age profile

mean 28.2 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 L. Mpasi 31 yr

Le Havre · Ligue 1

19 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
21 M. Epolo 20 yr

Standard Liege · Jupiler Pro League
16 T. Fayulu 26 yr

FC Sion · Super League

DEF Defenders · 8

22 C. Mbemba 31 yr

Lille · Ligue 1

66 caps · 4G · 10 since 2024 (4G/0A · 7.19rtg)
26 A. Masuaku 32 yr

Lens · Ligue 1

37 caps · 4G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.08rtg)
12 J. Kayembe 31 yr

Genk · Jupiler Pro League

23 caps · 10 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.22rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.0 rtg
24 G. Kalulu 28 yr

Aris · 1. Division

18 caps · 5 since 2024 (7.15rtg)
5 D. Batubinsika 29 yr

Larisa · Super League 1

12 caps · 1G · 1 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.9rtg)
4 A. Tuanzebe 28 yr

Burnley · Premier League

7 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.19rtg) | club 1G · 6.53 rtg
2 A. Wan-Bissaka 28 yr

West Ham · Premier League

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.74rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.64 rtg
3 S. Kapuadi 27 yr

Legia Warszawa · Ekstraklasa

MID Midfielders · 8

8 S. Moutoussamy 29 yr

Atromitos · Super League 1

45 caps · 12 since 2024 (7.02rtg) | club 3G · 6.94 rtg
10 T. Bongonda 30 yr

Spartak Moscow · Premier League

31 caps · 6G · 13 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.88rtg)
25 E. Kayembe 27 yr

Watford · Championship

27 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.85rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
18 C. Pickel 28 yr

Espanyol · La Liga

24 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.68rtg) | club 1G · 6.53 rtg
15 A. Tshibola 30 yr

Kilmarnock · Premiership

14 caps · 1G
14 N. Sadiki Top minutes 21 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.76rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.76 rtg
7 N. Mbuku 23 yr

Montpellier · Ligue 2

8 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.09rtg) | club 4G · 5A · 6.95 rtg
6 N. Mukau 21 yr

Lille · Ligue 1

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.92rtg) | club 1G · 6.61 rtg

ATT Attackers · 7

17 C. Bakambu Top scorer 34 yr

Real Betis · La Liga

66 caps · 20G · 7 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.4rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.65 rtg
13 M. Elia 28 yr

Alanyaspor · Süper Lig

53 caps · 11G · 13 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.59rtg) | club 3G · 6.64 rtg
19 F. Mayele 31 yr

Pyramids FC · Premier League

30 caps · 5G · 10 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.41rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 6.62 rtg
20 Y. Wissa 29 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

26 caps · 5G · 3 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.93rtg) | club 1G · 6.47 rtg
11 G. Kakuta 34 yr

Sakaryaspor · 1. Lig

23 caps · 5G · 3 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.34rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 7.1 rtg
23 S. Banza 29 yr

Al-Jazira · Pro League

18 caps · 2G · 7 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.95rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.91 rtg
9 B. Cipenga 27 yr

Castellón · Segunda División

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.68rtg) | club 6G · 9A · 7.15 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 1–2 vs Chile

D 0–0 vs Denmark

W 1–0 v Jamaica

W 2–0 v Bermuda

L 0–1 v ALG

W 3–0 v Botswana

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(COD win)	P(draw)
2026-06-17	A vs Portugal (POR)	12.1%	22.4%
2026-06-23	A vs Colombia (COL)	13.7%	25.7%
2026-06-27	H vs Uzbekistan (UZB)	31.5%	34.2%

Where the squad plays

25 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

66.3/100

vs model strength -6.0

Top-5 leagues

33%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	4	20.0%	100
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	2	14.0%	65
Super League 1	Greece	2	11.1%	55
Ligue 1	France	4	9.1%	80
Championship	England	1	7.4%	55
Segunda División	Spain	1	6.7%	50
Ligue 2	France	1	6.5%	48
1. Lig	Turkey	1	4.8%	38
Premier League	Egypt	1	4.5%	40
Ekstraklasa	Poland	1	4.2%	48
La Liga	Spain	2	3.9%	95
Premiership	Scotland	1	2.6%	50
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	2.5%	60
Pro League	United-Arab-Emirates	1	1.5%	40
1. Division	Cyprus	1	0.8%	38
Premier League	Russia	1	0.1%	55

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -6.0 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources