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Group K · COL

Colombia

Strength

83.3

± 2.0

Attack

81.7

0–100

Defense

82.8

0–100

P(champion)

4.62%

9.2% reach final

Strength trajectory

82.3 → 83.4 · +1.1

2023-03-31 range 82.3–84.2 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

4.62%

to lift

Polymarket

1.6%

implied · +3.0pp

Kalshi

1.5%

implied · +3.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

39.7%

R16

56.1%

Quarter

32.8%

Semi

18.0%

Final

9.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Barranquilla · 46,788 seats (WC avg 55,865; -9,077)

Age profile

mean 29.2 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 D. Ospina 37 yr

Atletico Nacional · Primera A

126 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.3rtg)
12 C. Vargas 36 yr

Atlas · Liga MX

42 caps · 28 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.3rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.91 rtg
24 Á. Montero 30 yr

Millonarios · Primera A

11 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.87rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.15 rtg

DEF Defenders · 8

23 D. Sánchez 29 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

77 caps · 4G · 25 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.0rtg) | club 1G · 7.1 rtg
13 Y. Mina 31 yr

Cagliari · Serie A

57 caps · 8G · 17 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.93rtg) | club 2G · 6.96 rtg
4 S. Arias 33 yr

Bahia · Serie A

70 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/3A · 7.08rtg)
2 D. Muñoz 29 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

46 caps · 3G · 27 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 6.91 rtg
17 J. Mojica Top minutes 33 yr

Mallorca · La Liga

45 caps · 1G · 23 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.5rtg) | club 0G · 4A · 6.68 rtg
3 J. Lucumí 27 yr

Bologna · Serie A

39 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 1G · 7.0 rtg
22 D. Machado 32 yr

Nantes · Ligue 1

15 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.58rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.64 rtg
18 W. Ditta 28 yr

Cruz Azul · Liga MX

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.95rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 7.01 rtg

MID Midfielders · 12

10 J. Rodríguez Top scorer 34 yr

Leon · Liga MX

126 caps · 31G · 36 since 2024 (5G/16A · 7.5rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 7.31 rtg
7 L. Díaz 28 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

74 caps · 22G · 35 since 2024 (13G/4A · 6.3rtg) | club 15G · 14A · 7.28 rtg
16 J. Lerma 31 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

65 caps · 5G · 30 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.0rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.72 rtg
20 J. Quintero 32 yr

America de Cali · Primera A

51 caps · 6G · 19 since 2024 (2G/3A · 7.0rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 7.46 rtg
11 J. Arias 28 yr

Wolves · Premier League

38 caps · 5G · 32 since 2024 (5G/3A · 7.3rtg) | club 1G · 6.63 rtg
6 R. Rios 25 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

31 caps · 2G · 31 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.81rtg) | club 5G · 4A · 7.09 rtg
8 J. Carrascal 27 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

26 caps · 2G · 20 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.72rtg) | club 2G · 5A · 7.15 rtg
5 K. Castaño 25 yr

River Plate · Liga Profesional Argentina

27 caps · 23 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.74rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.91 rtg

+ 4 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 3

9 J. Córdoba 32 yr

FC Krasnodar · Premier League

21 caps · 6G · 21 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.95rtg) | club 17G · 6A · 7.19 rtg
25 L. Suárez 28 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

12 caps · 4G · 8 since 2024 (4G/0A · 7.2rtg) | club 28G · 6A · 7.42 rtg
19 C. Hernández 26 yr

Real Betis · La Liga

8 caps · 2G · 4 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.61rtg) | club 11G · 3A · 6.89 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

21 J. Campaz 25 yr

Rosario Central · 9c/1g
26 A. Gómez 23 yr

Vasco DA Gama · 7c/2g
15 J. Portilla 27 yr

Talleres Cordoba · 9c
14 G. Puerta 22 yr

Racing Santander · 6c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–0 vs JOR

W 3–1 vs Costa Rica

L 1–3 v FRA

L 1–2 v CRO

W 3–0 v AUS

W 2–1 v NZL

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(COL win)	P(draw)
2026-06-17	A vs Uzbekistan (UZB)	58.8%	26.6%
2026-06-23	H vs DR Congo (COD)	60.5%	25.7%
2026-06-27	H vs Portugal (POR)	32.8%	28.3%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

69.9/100

vs model strength -13.4

Top-5 leagues

34%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Liga MX	Mexico	3	14.6%	50
Primera A	Colombia	3	11.3%	50
Liga Profesional Argentina	Argentina	3	10.2%	62
La Liga	Spain	2	9.9%	95
Premier League	England	3	9.8%	100
Primeira Liga	Portugal	2	9.3%	70
Serie A	Italy	2	8.3%	88
Serie A	Brazil	3	6.2%	70
Segunda División	Spain	1	5.0%	50
Premier League	Russia	1	4.6%	55
Bundesliga	Germany	1	4.6%	90
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	4.5%	60
Ligue 1	France	1	1.7%	80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -13.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources