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Group A · CZE · outside top-16

Czech Republic

Strength
75.4
± 1.5
Attack
75.3
0–100
Defense
74.5
0–100
P(champion)
0.3%
1.1% reach final
Strength trajectory
77.1 → 75.6 · -1.5
2023-03-31 range 75.6–77.3 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.3%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · +0.1pp
Kalshi
0.5%
implied · -0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.9%
R16
32.3%
Quarter
11.8%
Semi
3.5%
Final
1.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Fortuna Arena
Prague · 19,370 seats (WC avg 55,865; -36,495)
Age profile
mean 26.6 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 M. Kovár 25 yr
    PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie
    22 caps · 22 since 2024 (7.0rtg)
  • 16 J. Stanek 29 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    14 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.35rtg)
  • 23 L. Hornícek 23 yr
    SC Braga · Primeira Liga
DEF Defenders · 8
  • 5 V. Coufal Top minutes 33 yr
    1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
    64 caps · 3G · 27 since 2024 (2G/4A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 1G · 8A · 7.16 rtg
  • 3 T. Holes 32 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    45 caps · 3G · 14 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.88rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 7.41 rtg
  • 7 L. Krejcí 26 yr
    Wolves · Premier League
    35 caps · 6G · 28 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.2rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.71 rtg
  • 2 D. Zima 25 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    26 caps · 1G · 7 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.87rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 6.94 rtg
  • 20 J. Zelený 33 yr
    Sparta Praha · Czech Liga
    24 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/4A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 6.9 rtg
  • 14 D. Jurásek 25 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    17 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.95rtg)  |  club 1G · 6A · 7.38 rtg
  • 4 R. Hranác 25 yr
    1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
    13 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.3rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.74 rtg
  • 6 S. Chaloupek 22 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.2rtg)  |  club 9G · 2A · 7.21 rtg
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 22 T. Soucek 30 yr
    West Ham · Premier League
    84 caps · 15G · 26 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 5G · 6.77 rtg
  • 8 V. Darida 35 yr
    Hradec Králové · Czech Liga
    72 caps · 7G · 2 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.4rtg)  |  club 10G · 3A · 7.44 rtg
  • 18 M. Sadílek 26 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    35 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 1G · 4A · 7.02 rtg
  • 12 L. Cerv 24 yr
    Plzen · Czech Liga
    17 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (2G/3A · 7.37rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 7.01 rtg
  • 21 D. Doudera 27 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    16 caps · 2G · 10 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.22rtg)  |  club 1G · 4A · 7.03 rtg
  • 26 D. Visinský 22 yr
    Plzen · Czech Liga
     |  club 8G · 1A · 7.05 rtg
  • 24 A. Sojka 22 yr
    Hradec Králové · Czech Liga
     |  club 1G · 6.65 rtg
  • 25 H. Sochurek 17 yr
    Sparta Praha · Czech Liga
     |  club 0G · 2A · 6.96 rtg
ATT Attackers · 7
  • 10 P. Schick Top scorer 29 yr
    Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga
    49 caps · 24G · 20 since 2024 (10G/0A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 16G · 3A · 6.95 rtg
  • 9 A. Hlozek 23 yr
    1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
    54 caps · 7G · 21 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.0rtg)
  • 17 L. Provod 29 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    40 caps · 3G · 24 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 7G · 10A · 7.44 rtg
  • 11 J. Kuchta 28 yr
    Sparta Praha · Czech Liga
    31 caps · 3G · 11 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.59rtg)  |  club 12G · 6A · 6.91 rtg
  • 13 M. Chytil 26 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    24 caps · 6G · 13 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.299999999999999rtg)  |  club 13G · 1A · 6.88 rtg
  • 19 T. Chorý 30 yr
    Slavia Praha · Czech Liga
    23 caps · 6G · 22 since 2024 (5G/3A · 6.3rtg)  |  club 17G · 4A · 7.28 rtg
  • 15 P. Sulc 25 yr
    Lyon · Ligue 1
    23 caps · 6G · 23 since 2024 (6G/2A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 11G · 3A · 6.91 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
L 1–2 v KOR
W 3–1 vs Guatemala
W 2–1 vs Kosovo
W 2–2 vs Denmark
W 2–2 vs Republic of Ireland
W 6–0 vs Gibraltar

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(CZE win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-11 A vs South Korea (KOR) 34.5% 28.6%
2026-06-18 H vs South Africa (RSA) 45.5% 28.9%
2026-06-24 A vs Mexico (MEX) 24.1% 25.3%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
62.7/100
vs model strength -12.7
Top-5 leagues
27%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Czech Liga Czech-Republic 17 61.3% 48
Bundesliga Germany 4 14.7% 90
Premier League England 2 9.2% 100
Primeira Liga Portugal 1 6.0% 70
Eredivisie Netherlands 1 5.6% 72
Ligue 1 France 1 3.2% 80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -12.7 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Czech Republic (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.