← Fixtures

Group E · ECU

Ecuador

Strength

80.2

± 1.8

Attack

76.0

0–100

Defense

82.5

0–100

P(champion)

1.97%

4.6% reach final

Strength trajectory

78.9 → 80.3 · +1.4

2023-03-31 range 78.7–80.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

1.97%

to lift

Polymarket

0.8%

implied · +1.1pp

Kalshi

0.7%

implied · +1.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

28.3%

R16

49.1%

Quarter

22.5%

Semi

10.7%

Final

4.6%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Quito · 41,575 seats (WC avg 55,865; -14,290)

Age profile

mean 25.1 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 H. Galíndez 38 yr

Huracan · Copa Argentina

34 caps · 18 since 2024 (7.1rtg)
12 M. Ramírez 25 yr

Kifisia · Super League 1

7 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.95rtg)
22 G. Valle 29 yr

LDU de Quito · Liga Pro

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (7.28rtg)

DEF Defenders · 8

7 P. Estupiñán 27 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

53 caps · 4G · 18 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.93rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.72 rtg
21 A. Franco 27 yr

Atletico-MG · Serie A

57 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.72rtg) | club 1G · 6.9 rtg
2 F. Torres 28 yr

Corinthians · Serie A

48 caps · 5G · 24 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.96rtg)
3 P. Hincapié 23 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

51 caps · 3G · 24 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.16rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.92 rtg
17 A. Preciado 27 yr

Sparta Praha · Czech Liga

56 caps · 25 since 2024 (6.82rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
6 W. Pacho 24 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

34 caps · 2G · 31 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.12rtg)
4 J. Ordoñez 21 yr

Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League

16 caps · 16 since 2024 (7.02rtg) | club 3G · 6.96 rtg
25 J. Porozo 25 yr

Club Tijuana · Liga MX

9 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.2rtg) | club 2G · 6.97 rtg

MID Midfielders · 7

23 M. Caicedo Top minutes 24 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

60 caps · 3G · 28 since 2024 (3G/4A · 7.16rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 7.17 rtg
14 A. Minda 22 yr

Cercle Brugge · Jupiler Pro League

19 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.7rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
15 P. Vite 23 yr

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX

16 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.08rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
5 J. Alcívar 26 yr

Independiente del Valle · Liga Pro

10 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.84rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
18 D. Castillo 21 yr

FC Midtjylland · Superliga

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.91rtg) | club 4G · 4A · 6.87 rtg
26 Y. Medina 21 yr

Genk · Jupiler Pro League

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.54rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 6.73 rtg
8 A. Valencia 22 yr

Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League

2 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.1rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 6.94 rtg

ATT Attackers · 8

13 E. Valencia Top scorer 36 yr

CF Pachuca · Liga MX

116 caps · 50G · 25 since 2024 (8G/2A · 6.64rtg) | club 8G · 1A · 6.85 rtg
19 G. Plata 25 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

49 caps · 8G · 15 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.1rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
11 K. Rodríguez 25 yr

Union St. Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League

31 caps · 1G · 26 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.71rtg) | club 10G · 2A · 6.71 rtg
9 J. Yeboah 25 yr

Venezia · Serie B

23 caps · 3G · 23 since 2024 (3G/4A · 7.02rtg) | club 10G · 9A · 7.31 rtg
10 K. Páez 18 yr

Strasbourg · Ligue 1

25 caps · 2G · 25 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.89rtg) | club 1G · 6.5 rtg
16 J. Caicedo 28 yr

Sporting Gijon · Segunda División

18 caps · 3G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.51rtg)
20 N. Angulo 22 yr

Anderlecht · Jupiler Pro League

12 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.64rtg) | club 6G · 5A · 7.26 rtg
24 Jeremy Arévalo 20 yr

Racing Santander · Segunda División

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 8G · 7.03 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 3–0 vs Guatemala

W 2–1 v KSA

D 1–1 @ NED

D 1–1 v MAR

W 2–0 v NZL

D 0–0 @ CAN

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(ECU win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	A vs Ivory Coast (CIV)	42.3%	33.1%
2026-06-20	H vs Curaçao (CUW)	72.5%	19.7%
2026-06-25	H vs Germany (GER)	28.0%	28.0%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

63.8/100

vs model strength -16.4

Top-5 leagues

18%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	6	22.5%	65
Liga MX	Mexico	3	16.3%	50
Serie A	Brazil	3	10.4%	70
Premier League	England	2	10.1%	100
Copa Argentina	Argentina	1	7.5%	62
Liga Pro	Ecuador	2	6.1%	45
Serie B	Italy	1	5.8%	50
Super League 1	Greece	1	5.5%	55
Ligue 1	France	2	5.2%	80
Superliga	Denmark	1	3.8%	50
Serie A	Italy	1	2.3%	88
Segunda División	Spain	2	2.3%	50
Czech Liga	Czech-Republic	1	2.1%	48

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -16.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources