Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
← Fixtures
Group L · ENG

England

Strength
86.1
± 1.6
Attack
83.5
0–100
Defense
86.3
0–100
P(champion)
9.26%
15.9% reach final
Strength trajectory
85.8 → 86.2 · +0.4
2023-03-31 range 85.3–86.3 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
9.26%
to lift
Polymarket
9.4%
implied · -0.2pp
Kalshi
9.9%
implied · -0.7pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
64.0%
R16
67.0%
Quarter
45.1%
Semi
26.8%
Final
15.9%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Wembley Stadium
London · 90,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +34,135)
Age profile
mean 26.2 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 J. Pickford 31 yr
    Everton · Premier League
    78 caps · 27 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
  • 13 D. Henderson 28 yr
    Crystal Palace · Premier League
    4 caps · 3 since 2024 (7.2rtg)
  • 23 J. Trafford 23 yr
    Manchester City · League Cup
    2 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 5 J. Stones 31 yr
    Manchester City · Premier League
    81 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.0rtg)
  • 6 M. Guéhi 25 yr
    Crystal Palace · Premier League
    29 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/5A · 7.0rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 7.22 rtg
  • 24 R. James 26 yr
    Chelsea · Premier League
    26 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 2G · 4A · 7.19 rtg
  • 2 E. Konsa 28 yr
    Aston Villa · Premier League
    21 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.9rtg)
  • 12 T. Livramento 23 yr
    Newcastle · Premier League
    11 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.8 rtg
  • 15 D. Burn 33 yr
    Newcastle · Premier League
    8 caps · 8 since 2024 (7.2rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.59 rtg
  • 25 D. Spence 25 yr
    Tottenham · Premier League
    5 caps · 5 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.5rtg)
  • 3 N. Oreilly 20 yr
    Manchester City · Premier League
    4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.3rtg)  |  club 5G · 3A · 6.88 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 11
  • 11 M. Rashford 28 yr
    Barcelona · La Liga
    70 caps · 18G · 14 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.3rtg)  |  club 8G · 7A · 6.82 rtg
  • 14 J. Henderson 35 yr
    Brentford · Premier League
    88 caps · 3G · 11 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.0rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 6.8 rtg
  • 4 D. Rice 26 yr
    Arsenal · Premier League
    68 caps · 6G · 26 since 2024 (3G/8A · 7.52rtg)  |  club 4G · 5A · 7.46 rtg
  • 10 J. Bellingham 22 yr
    Real Madrid · La Liga
    52 caps · 6G · 22 since 2024 (4G/5A · 7.3rtg)  |  club 6G · 4A · 7.28 rtg
  • 19 O. Watkins 30 yr
    Aston Villa · Premier League
    21 caps · 6G · 12 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.0rtg)  |  club 16G · 3A · 6.87 rtg
  • 21 E. Eze 27 yr
    Arsenal · Premier League
    17 caps · 4G · 15 since 2024 (4G/0A · 7.12rtg)  |  club 7G · 2A · 6.96 rtg
  • 18 A. Gordon 24 yr
    Newcastle · Premier League
    19 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.0rtg)  |  club 6G · 2A · 7.08 rtg
  • 17 M. Rogers 23 yr
    Aston Villa · Premier League
    16 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 10G · 6A · 6.84 rtg
  • 8 E. Anderson Top minutes 23 yr
    Nottingham Forest · Premier League
    8 caps · 8 since 2024 (7.2rtg)  |  club 4G · 4A · 7.35 rtg
+ 2 more in the broader pool
ATT Attackers · 3
  • 9 H. Kane Top scorer 32 yr
    Bayern München · Bundesliga
    108 caps · 77G · 26 since 2024 (19G/0A · 7.3rtg)  |  club 36G · 5A · 7.87 rtg
  • 7 B. Saka 24 yr
    Arsenal · Premier League
    52 caps · 14G · 16 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.27rtg)  |  club 7G · 5A · 7.24 rtg
  • 22 I. Toney 29 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    8 caps · 1G · 7 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 31G · 7A · 7.37 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 26 J. Quansah 22 yr
    Bayer Leverkusen · 2c
MID · additional
  • 20 N. Madueke 23 yr
    Arsenal · 10c/1g
  • 8 E. Anderson 23 yr
    Nottingham Forest · 8c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
W 3–0 vs Costa Rica
W 1–0 vs NZL
L 0–1 vs JPN
D 1–1 vs URU
W 2–0 @ Albania
W 2–0 vs Serbia

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(ENG win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-17 H vs Croatia (CRO) 48.3% 28.8%
2026-06-23 H vs Ghana (GHA) 68.6% 21.3%
2026-06-27 A vs Panama (PAN) 73.8% 17.8%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
97.0/100
vs model strength +10.9
Top-5 leagues
94%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Premier League England 20 79.8% 100
Bundesliga Germany 2 8.2% 90
La Liga Spain 2 6.4% 95
Pro League Saudi-Arabia 1 4.7% 60
League Cup England 1 0.9% 100

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +10.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for England (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.