← Fixtures

Group A · KOR · outside top-16

South Korea

Strength

75.9

± 1.7

Attack

74.5

0–100

Defense

76.1

0–100

P(champion)

0.26%

1.0% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.1 → 75.6 · +0.5

2023-03-31 range 74.9–75.9 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.26%

to lift

Polymarket

0.4%

implied · -0.2pp

Kalshi

0.4%

implied · -0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

20.2%

R16

31.7%

Quarter

11.7%

Semi

3.6%

Final

1.0%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Seoul World Cup Stadium

Seoul · 66,704 seats (WC avg 55,865; +10,839)

Age profile

mean 27.2 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

12 Kim Seung-Gyu 35 yr

FC Tokyo · J1 League

88 caps · 9 since 2024 (7.5rtg)
21 Jo Hyeon-Woo 34 yr

Ulsan Hyundai FC · K League 1

67 caps · 37 since 2024 (6.82rtg)
1 Song Bum-Keun 28 yr

Jeonbuk Motors · K League 1

3 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.7rtg)

DEF Defenders · 6

4 Kim Min-Jae 29 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

77 caps · 4G · 19 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 7.23 rtg
15 Kim Moon-Hwan 30 yr

Daejeon Citizen · K League 1

41 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/3A · 7.07rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.85 rtg
5 Kim Tae-Hyeon 25 yr

Kashima · J1 League

37 caps · 37 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.87rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.97 rtg
3 Lee Gi-Hyuk 25 yr

Gangwon FC · K League 1

13 caps · 12 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
2 Lee Han-Beom 23 yr

FC Midtjylland · Superliga

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.9rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.99 rtg
14 Cho Wi-Je 24 yr

—

MID Midfielders · 9

10 Lee Jae-Sung Top minutes 33 yr

FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

106 caps · 15G · 25 since 2024 (6G/3A · 7.0rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 6.68 rtg
6 Hwang In-Beom 29 yr

Feyenoord · Eredivisie

74 caps · 7G · 21 since 2024 (1G/4A · 8.9rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.91 rtg
19 Lee Kang-In 24 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

48 caps · 8G · 26 since 2024 (2G/9A · 8.2rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 7.04 rtg
13 Lee Tae-Seok 23 yr

Austria Vienna · Bundesliga

34 caps · 1G · 34 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.3rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 7.05 rtg
22 Seol Young-Woo 27 yr

FK Crvena Zvezda · Super Liga

35 caps · 24 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.7rtg) | club 2G · 5A · 7.16 rtg
8 Paik Seung-Ho 28 yr

Birmingham · Championship

28 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.200000000000001rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.96 rtg
24 Kim Jin-Gyu 28 yr

Jeonbuk Motors · K League 1

23 caps · 3G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.99 rtg
16 Park Jin-Seop 30 yr

Jeonbuk Motors · K League 1

25 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 7.38 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 8

7 Son Heung-Min Top scorer 33 yr

Los Angeles FC · Major League Soccer

147 caps · 53G · 25 since 2024 (12G/5A · 6.9rtg) | club 12G · 3A · 8.18 rtg
11 Hwang Hee-Chan 29 yr

Wolves · Premier League

80 caps · 15G · 19 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.6rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.61 rtg
9 Cho Gue-Sung 28 yr

FC Midtjylland · Superliga

44 caps · 11G · 10 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.01rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.43 rtg
26 Lee Dong-Gyeong 28 yr

Gimcheon Sangmu FC · K League 1

38 caps · 4G · 30 since 2024 (3G/2A · 6.97rtg) | club 8G · 5A · 7.86 rtg
9 Oh Hyeon-Gyu 24 yr

Genk · Jupiler Pro League

31 caps · 7G · 19 since 2024 (7G/1A · 7.3rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 6.75 rtg
20 Yang Hyun-Jun 23 yr

Celtic · Premiership

22 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.66rtg) | club 8G · 1A · 6.92 rtg
17 Bae Jun-Ho 22 yr

Stoke City · Championship

13 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/4A · 7.17rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.67 rtg
25 Eom Ji-Sung 23 yr

Swansea · Championship

10 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.8 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

23 J. Castrop 22 yr

Borussia Mönchengladbach · 7c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–1 v CZE

W 1–0 vs El Salvador

W 5–0 v Trinidad and Tobago

L 0–1 @ AUT

L 0–4 v CIV

W 1–0 vs GHA

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(KOR win)	P(draw)
2026-06-11	H vs Czech Republic (CZE)	36.9%	28.6%
2026-06-18	A vs Mexico (MEX)	25.0%	26.8%
2026-06-24	A vs South Africa (RSA)	45.8%	30.0%

Where the squad plays

25 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

60.3/100

vs model strength -15.6

Top-5 leagues

19%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Championship	England	3	20.3%	55
K League 1	South-Korea	7	19.4%	52
Bundesliga	Germany	3	12.5%	90
Superliga	Denmark	2	8.6%	50
J1 League	Japan	2	8.0%	55
Super Liga	Serbia	1	6.2%	45
Bundesliga	Austria	1	6.0%	52
Premiership	Scotland	1	4.8%	50
Ligue 1	France	1	3.5%	80
Premier League	England	1	3.4%	100
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	1	2.6%	65
Major League Soccer	USA	1	2.6%	50
Eredivisie	Netherlands	1	2.3%	72

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -15.6 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources