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Group H · KSA · outside top-16

Saudi Arabia

Strength
70.7
± 1.5
Attack
67.2
0–100
Defense
73.3
0–100
P(champion)
0.01%
0.1% reach final
Strength trajectory
71.4 → 70.6 · -0.8
2023-03-31 range 70.1–71.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.01%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
2.1%
R16
9.7%
Quarter
2.7%
Semi
0.5%
Final
0.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
King Fahd Sports City Stadium
Riyadh · 68,752 seats (WC avg 55,865; +12,887)
Age profile
mean 27.6 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 21 Mohammed Al Owais 34 yr
    —
    82 caps · 34 since 2024 (7.04rtg)
  • 1 Nawaf Al Aqidi 25 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    19 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.96rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.86 rtg
  • 22 Ahmed Al Kassar 34 yr
    Al-Qadisiyah FC · Pro League
    15 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.78rtg)
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 12 Saud Abdulhamid 26 yr
    Lens · Ligue 1
    50 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.2rtg)  |  club 2G · 4A · 6.99 rtg
  • 5 Hassan Tambakti 26 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League
    48 caps · 23 since 2024 (7.06rtg)  |  club 1G · 7.09 rtg
  • 4 Abdulelah Al Amri 28 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    33 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.96rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 7.08 rtg
  • 14 Hassan Kadesh 33 yr
    Al-Ittihad FC · King's Cup
    21 caps · 2G · 16 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.1rtg)  |  club 5G · 7.086206 rtg
  • 3 Ali Lajami 29 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup
    20 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.02rtg)
  • 24 Moteb Al Harbi 25 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup
    16 caps · 12 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.12rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 6.957142 rtg
  • 13 Nawaf Boushal 26 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    16 caps · 15 since 2024 (7.02rtg)  |  club 0G · 6A · 6.96 rtg
  • 2 Ali Majrashi 26 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    14 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.17rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 6.93 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 7
  • 10 Salem Al Dawsari Top scorer 34 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League
    98 caps · 23G · 18 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.2rtg)  |  club 8G · 8A · 7.3 rtg
  • 28 Mohamed Kanno 31 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League
    76 caps · 4G · 27 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.97rtg)  |  club 5G · 3A · 7.17 rtg
  • 6 Nasser Al Dawsari 27 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League
    54 caps · 2G · 35 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.0rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.87 rtg
  • 15 Abdullah Al Khaibari 29 yr
    Al-Nassr · King's Cup
    40 caps · 19 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.75rtg)
  • 16 Ziyad Al Johani 24 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    10 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.62rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.68 rtg
  • 26 Mohammed Abu Al Shamat 23 yr
    Al-Qadisiyah FC · Pro League
    3 caps · 1 since 2024 (6.2rtg)  |  club 3G · 8A · 7.3 rtg
  • 30 Ala Al Haji 29 yr
    —
ATT Attackers · 7
  • 9 Feras Al Brikan 25 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    64 caps · 13G · 25 since 2024 (7G/0A · 7.06rtg)  |  club 5G · 1A · 6.71 rtg
  • 11 Saleh Al Shehri 32 yr
    Al-Ittihad FC · King's Cup
    47 caps · 14G · 19 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.73rtg)  |  club 3G · 1A · 6.631578 rtg
  • 19 Abdullah Al Hamdan 26 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup
    50 caps · 10G · 24 since 2024 (5G/2A · 6.97rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.653333 rtg
  • 7 Musab Al Juwayr Top minutes 22 yr
    Al-Qadisiyah FC · Pro League
    33 caps · 4G · 30 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.33rtg)  |  club 6G · 11A · 7.39 rtg
  • 8 Ayman Yahya 24 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    22 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.9rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 6.79 rtg
  • 27 Sultan Mandash 31 yr
    Al Taawon · Pro League
    5 caps · 1G · 3 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.45rtg)  |  club 2G · 3A · 6.8 rtg
  • 17 Khalid Al Ghannam 25 yr
    Al-Ettifaq · Pro League
    5 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.7rtg)  |  club 13G · 6A · 7.27 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 25 J. Thakri 24 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 0–0 vs SEN
W 3–0 @ Puerto Rico
L 1–2 v ECU
L 1–2 @ Serbia
L 0–4 vs EGY
L 0–1 v JOR

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(KSA win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-15 H vs Uruguay (URU) 13.2% 27.1%
2026-06-21 A vs Spain (ESP) 7.1% 17.5%
2026-06-26 A vs Cape Verde (CPV) 36.5% 33.5%

Where the squad plays

23 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
53.6/100
vs model strength -17.1
Top-5 leagues
4%
Unrated leagues
24%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Pro League Saudi-Arabia 16 72.8% 60
King's Cup (unrated) 6 23.6% 30
Ligue 1 France 1 3.6% 80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -17.1 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Saudi Arabia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.