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Group A · MEX

Mexico

Strength

78.0

± 1.3

Attack

75.9

0–100

Defense

78.7

0–100

P(champion)

1.12%

3.1% reach final

Strength trajectory

77.8 → 77.6 · -0.2

2023-03-31 range 77.5–77.9 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

1.12%

to lift

Polymarket

1.4%

implied · -0.3pp

Kalshi

1.8%

implied · -0.7pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

50.0%

R16

48.6%

Quarter

20.4%

Semi

8.1%

Final

3.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estadio Banorte

Mexico City · 87,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +31,135)

Age profile

mean 26.9 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

13 G. Ochoa 40 yr

AEL · 1. Division

127 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
1 J. Rangel 25 yr

Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX

19 caps · 19 since 2024 (6.825rtg)
12 C. Acevedo 29 yr

Santos Laguna · Liga MX

7 caps · 1 since 2024 (7.5rtg)

DEF Defenders · 6

23 J. Gallardo 31 yr

Toluca · Liga MX

121 caps · 2G · 23 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.818181818181818rtg) | club 5G · 5A · 6.94 rtg
3 C. Montes 28 yr

Lokomotiv · Premier League

69 caps · 4G · 21 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 4G · 7.25 rtg
2 J. Sánchez 28 yr

Cruz Azul · Liga MX

56 caps · 3G · 16 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.56 rtg
5 J. Vásquez Top minutes 27 yr

Genoa · Serie A

45 caps · 2G · 22 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.396341463414634rtg) | club 1G · 6.8 rtg
15 I. Reyes 25 yr

Club America · Liga MX

36 caps · 2G · 22 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.3rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 7.07 rtg
20 M. Chávez 21 yr

AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.45rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.88 rtg

MID Midfielders · 12

17 O. Pineda 29 yr

AEK Athens FC · Super League 1

87 caps · 11G · 22 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.0rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 7.33 rtg
4 E. Álvarez 28 yr

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

94 caps · 7G · 19 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.96218487394958rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
25 R. Alvarado 27 yr

Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX

63 caps · 4G · 22 since 2024 (4G/3A · 7.855629139072848rtg) | club 4G · 5A · 7.17 rtg
7 L. Romo 30 yr

Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX

62 caps · 4G · 18 since 2024 (1G/3A · 7.19rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 7.06 rtg
24 L. Chávez 29 yr

Dynamo · Premier League

47 caps · 4G · 17 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.814285714285715rtg)
21 C. Huerta 25 yr

Anderlecht · Jupiler Pro League

24 caps · 3G · 17 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.74rtg) | club 1G · 6.54 rtg
6 É. Lira 25 yr

Cruz Azul · Liga MX

29 caps · 25 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.19774011299435rtg)
16 J. Quiñones 28 yr

Al-Qadisiyah FC · Pro League

23 caps · 2G · 20 since 2024 (1G/1A · 8.011926605504586rtg) | club 33G · 4A · 7.63 rtg

+ 4 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

9 R. Jiménez Top scorer 34 yr

Fulham · Premier League

123 caps · 44G · 16 since 2024 (10G/2A · 7.7rtg) | club 9G · 3A · 6.68 rtg
10 A. Vega 28 yr

Toluca · Liga MX

51 caps · 6G · 23 since 2024 (6G/5A · 6.728030303030303rtg) | club 4G · 11A · 7.57 rtg
11 S. Giménez 24 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

42 caps · 4G · 19 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.64rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.49 rtg
22 G. Martínez 30 yr

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX

11 caps · 3G · 10 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.76rtg) | club 9G · 6.89 rtg
14 A. González 22 yr

Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX

9 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.452542372881355rtg) | club 24G · 2A · 6.93 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

26 B. Gutiérrez 22 yr

Chicago Fire · 8c/3g
19 G. Mora 17 yr

Club Tijuana · 10c
18 O. Vargas 20 yr

Seattle Sounders · 6c
8 Álvaro Fidalgo 28 yr

Club America · 5c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–0 vs RSA

W 5–1 vs Serbia

W 1–0 v AUS

W 2–0 vs GHA

D 1–1 v BEL

D 0–0 vs POR

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(MEX win)	P(draw)
2026-06-11	H vs South Africa (RSA)	59.4%	24.5%
2026-06-18	H vs South Korea (KOR)	48.2%	26.8%
2026-06-24	H vs Czech Republic (CZE)	50.5%	25.3%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

56.8/100

vs model strength -21.2

Top-5 leagues

12%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Liga MX	Mexico	13	57.5%	50
Major League Soccer	USA	2	9.5%	50
Serie A	Italy	2	8.1%	88
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	1	5.4%	60
Super League 1	Greece	1	4.9%	55
Premier League	Russia	2	4.7%	55
Premier League	England	1	4.4%	100
Eredivisie	Netherlands	1	1.7%	72
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	1.5%	60
1. Division	Cyprus	1	1.4%	38
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	1	1.1%	65

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -21.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources