← Fixtures

Group I · NOR · outside top-16

Norway

Strength

79.0

± 2.0

Attack

79.9

0–100

Defense

76.8

0–100

P(champion)

0.98%

2.6% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.3 → 79.0 · +3.7

2023-03-31 range 75.0–79.0 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.98%

to lift

Polymarket

2.5%

implied · -1.5pp

Kalshi

2.2%

implied · -1.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

20.9%

R16

36.4%

Quarter

15.7%

Semi

6.6%

Final

2.6%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Ullevaal Stadion

Oslo · 27,182 seats (WC avg 55,865; -28,683)

Age profile

mean 25.9 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 Ø. Nyland 35 yr

Sevilla · La Liga

74 caps · 24 since 2024 (6.3rtg)
13 E. Selvik 28 yr

Watford · Championship

7 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
12 S. Tangvik 23 yr

Rosenborg · Eliteserien

DEF Defenders · 9

3 K. Ajer 27 yr

Brentford · Premier League

55 caps · 3G · 22 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.58rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.66 rtg
26 J. Ryerson 28 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

46 caps · 2G · 24 since 2024 (2G/10A · 7.4772727272727275rtg) | club 0G · 15A · 7.11 rtg
4 L. Østigård 26 yr

Genoa · Serie A

40 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.423913043478261rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.23 rtg
16 M. Pedersen 25 yr

Torino · Serie A

33 caps · 12 since 2024 (6.52rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.56 rtg
5 D. Møller Wolfe 23 yr

Wolves · Premier League

25 caps · 2G · 24 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.8533333333333335rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.57 rtg
15 F. Bjørkan 27 yr

Bodo/Glimt · Eliteserien

22 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.365217391304348rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 7.43 rtg
24 S. Langås 24 yr

Derby · Championship

16 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.89rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.75 rtg
17 T. Heggem 26 yr

Bologna · Serie A

18 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.540909090909091rtg)

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 9

18 K. Thorstvedt 26 yr

Sassuolo · Serie A

75 caps · 6G · 50 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.528947368421052rtg) | club 4G · 4A · 6.88 rtg
10 M. Ødegaard 27 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

70 caps · 5G · 15 since 2024 (2G/11A · 8.2rtg) | club 1G · 6A · 7.01 rtg
8 S. Berge 27 yr

Fulham · Premier League

69 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/7A · 7.406666666666666rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
6 P. Berg 28 yr

Bodo/Glimt · Eliteserien

46 caps · 24 since 2024 (6.838297872340425rtg) | club 5G · 12A · 7.89 rtg
2 M. Thorsby 29 yr

Genoa · Serie A

31 caps · 14 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.82rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
14 F. Aursnes 30 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

23 caps · 1G · 3 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.946666666666666rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 7.16 rtg
22 Oscar Bobb 22 yr

Fulham · Premier League

21 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.230487804878049rtg)
19 T. Aasgaard 23 yr

Rangers · Premiership

10 caps · 5G · 10 since 2024 (5G/2A · 6.465217391304347rtg) | club 7G · 4A · 7.02 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

9 E. Haaland Top scorer 25 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

52 caps · 57G · 23 since 2024 (30G/3A · 6.3rtg) | club 27G · 8A · 7.31 rtg
7 A. Sørloth 30 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

81 caps · 28G · 24 since 2024 (11G/5A · 6.664179104477612rtg) | club 13G · 6.81 rtg
11 J. Strand Larsen 25 yr

Wolves · Premier League

29 caps · 8G · 18 since 2024 (5G/1A · 7.621951219512195rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.37 rtg
20 A. Nusa 20 yr

RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

25 caps · 9G · 21 since 2024 (8G/4A · 7.991666666666666rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 7.1 rtg
21 A. Schjelderup 21 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

15 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/3A · 6.9219178082191775rtg) | club 7G · 5A · 7.33 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

25 H. Falchener 22 yr

Viking · 1c

MID · additional

23 J. Hauge 26 yr

Bodo/Glimt · 17c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 @ MAR

W 3–1 vs SWE

D 0–0 vs SUI

L 1–2 @ NED

W 4–1 @ Italy

W 4–1 vs Estonia

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(NOR win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	A vs Iraq (IRQ)	58.4%	24.9%
2026-06-22	H vs Senegal (SEN)	37.1%	29.0%
2026-06-26	H vs France (FRA)	22.7%	25.2%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

75.1/100

vs model strength -3.9

Top-5 leagues

55%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	7	23.1%	100
Eliteserien	Norway	5	23.1%	45
Serie A	Italy	5	19.2%	88
Championship	England	2	10.5%	55
Bundesliga	Germany	2	8.2%	90
Primeira Liga	Portugal	2	7.7%	70
La Liga	Spain	2	4.6%	95
Premiership	Scotland	1	3.5%	50

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -3.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources