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Group K · POR

Portugal

Strength

84.5

± 1.6

Attack

84.8

0–100

Defense

82.2

0–100

P(champion)

6.49%

12.4% reach final

Strength trajectory

84.6 → 84.6 · 0.0

2023-03-31 range 84.4–85.2 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

6.49%

to lift

Polymarket

10.3%

implied · -3.8pp

Kalshi

10.0%

implied · -3.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

51.3%

R16

63.4%

Quarter

39.8%

Semi

22.6%

Final

12.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estádio da Luz

Lisbon · 68,100 seats (WC avg 55,865; +12,235)

Age profile

mean 27.1 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 Diogo Costa 26 yr

FC Porto · Primeira Liga

41 caps · 22 since 2024 (7.08rtg)
12 José Sá 32 yr

Wolves · Premier League

4 caps · 3 since 2024 (7.91rtg)
22 Rui Silva 31 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

2 caps · 1 since 2024 (7.2rtg)

DEF Defenders · 8

20 João Cancelo 31 yr

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup

62 caps · 12G · 16 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.47rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 7.271875 rtg
3 Rúben Dias 28 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

65 caps · 3G · 20 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.24rtg) | club 2G · 7.17 rtg
2 Nélson Semedo 32 yr

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

49 caps · 20 since 2024 (0G/5A · 6.77rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.89 rtg
25 Nuno Mendes 23 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

42 caps · 1G · 23 since 2024 (1G/6A · 7.51rtg) | club 4G · 5A · 7.3 rtg
5 Diogo Dalot 26 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

35 caps · 3G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.03rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.86 rtg
14 Gonçalo Inácio 24 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

19 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.88rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 7.59 rtg
13 Renato Veiga 22 yr

Villarreal · La Liga

10 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.93rtg)
4 Tomás Araújo 23 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.98rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 7.09 rtg

MID Midfielders · 11

8 Bruno Fernandes Top minutes 31 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

80 caps · 27G · 23 since 2024 (9G/3A · 7.68rtg) | club 9G · 21A · 7.63 rtg
10 Bernardo Silva 31 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

98 caps · 11G · 19 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.3rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 6.85 rtg
21 Rúben Neves 28 yr

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League

63 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.21rtg) | club 11G · 7A · 7.82 rtg
17 Rafael Leão 26 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

42 caps · 5G · 19 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.95rtg) | club 9G · 3A · 6.92 rtg
23 Vitinha 25 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

36 caps · 22 since 2024 (0G/3A · 7.53rtg) | club 1G · 7A · 7.58 rtg
18 Pedro Neto 25 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

22 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.05rtg) | club 5G · 6A · 6.97 rtg
15 João Neves 21 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

20 caps · 3G · 17 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.23rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.16 rtg
16 Trincão 26 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

17 caps · 3G · 10 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.86rtg) | club 7G · 11A · 7.16 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 4

7 Cristiano Ronaldo Top scorer 40 yr

Al-Nassr · Pro League

156 caps · 110G · 20 since 2024 (15G/2A · 7.29rtg) | club 28G · 2A · 7.16 rtg
11 João Félix 26 yr

Al-Nassr · Pro League

48 caps · 11G · 16 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.1rtg) | club 20G · 13A · 7.75 rtg
9 Gonçalo Ramos 24 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

23 caps · 10G · 13 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.81rtg) | club 6G · 1A · 6.61 rtg
19 Gonçalo Guedes 29 yr

Real Sociedad · La Liga

28 caps · 5G · 1 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.5rtg) | club 8G · 4A · 6.88 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

6 Matheus Nunes 27 yr

Manchester City · 19c/2g
26 Francisco Conceição 23 yr

Juventus · 14c/3g
24 Samú Costa 25 yr

Mallorca · 4c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–1 vs Nigeria

W 2–1 vs Chile

W 2–0 @ USA

D 0–0 @ MEX

W 9–1 vs Armenia

L 0–2 @ Republic of Ireland

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(POR win)	P(draw)
2026-06-17	H vs DR Congo (COD)	65.3%	22.4%
2026-06-23	H vs Uzbekistan (UZB)	63.6%	23.3%
2026-06-27	A vs Colombia (COL)	38.8%	28.3%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

80.7/100

vs model strength -3.8

Top-5 leagues

58%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	7	30.1%	100
Primeira Liga	Portugal	5	21.1%	70
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	3	13.6%	60
La Liga	Spain	3	11.6%	95
Ligue 1	France	4	9.8%	80
Serie A	Italy	2	6.5%	88
King's Cup (unrated)		1	4.1%	30
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	3.2%	60

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -3.8 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources