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Group B · QAT · outside top-16

Qatar

Strength
68.3
± 1.7
Attack
69.7
0–100
Defense
66.9
0–100
P(champion)
0.01%
0.0% reach final
Strength trajectory
69.7 → 68.3 · -1.4
2023-03-31 range 68.3–70.4 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.01%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
3.8%
R16
8.6%
Quarter
1.7%
Semi
0.2%
Final
0.0%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Khalifa International Stadium
Doha · 45,857 seats (WC avg 55,865; -10,008)
Age profile
mean 28.5 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 22 Meshaal Barsham 27 yr
    Al Sadd · Stars League
    61 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.62rtg)
  • 21 Salah Zakaria 26 yr
    Al-Duhail SC · Stars League
    22 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.3rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.94 rtg
  • 1 Mahmud Abunada 25 yr
    Al-Rayyan SC · Stars League
    4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.78rtg)
DEF Defenders · 7
  • 16 Boualem Khoukhi 35 yr
    Al Sadd · Stars League
    120 caps · 21G · 12 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.16rtg)
  • 2 Pedro Miguel 35 yr
    Al Sadd · Stars League
    100 caps · 3G · 12 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.96rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.98 rtg
  • 14 Homam Ahmed 26 yr
    Cultural Leonesa · Segunda División
    64 caps · 3G · 21 since 2024 (3G/4A · 6.94rtg)
  • 3 Lucas Mendes Top minutes 35 yr
    Al Wakrah · Stars League
    25 caps · 2G · 18 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.04rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 7.09 rtg
  • 18 Sultan Al Braik 29 yr
    Al-Duhail SC · Stars League
    17 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.12rtg)
  • 13 A. Al Oui 20 yr
    —
  • 25 A. Al Hussain 22 yr
    —
MID Midfielders · 7
  • 6 Abdulaziz Hatem 35 yr
    Al-Rayyan SC · Stars League
    115 caps · 11G · 11 since 2024 (11G/0A · 6.57rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.8 rtg
  • 12 Karim Boudiaf 35 yr
    Al-Duhail SC · Qatar Cup
    117 caps · 5G · 7 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.51rtg)
  • 23 Assim Madibo 29 yr
    Al Wakrah · Stars League
    52 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.72rtg)
  • 20 Ahmed Fathi 32 yr
    Al-Arabi SC · Stars League
    50 caps · 21 since 2024 (6.83rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 7.15 rtg
  • 5 Jassem Gaber 23 yr
    Al-Rayyan SC · Stars League
    42 caps · 3G · 16 since 2024 (3G/2A · 6.85rtg)
  • 26 Mohamed Al Manai 22 yr
    Al Shamal · Stars League
    6 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.37rtg)  |  club 2G · 6.96 rtg
  • 4 G. Laye 27 yr
    —
ATT Attackers · 9
  • 19 Almoez Ali Top scorer 29 yr
    Al-Duhail SC · Qatar Cup
    124 caps · 58G · 26 since 2024 (15G/2A · 7.33rtg)
  • 10 Hassan Al Haydos 35 yr
    Al Sadd · Stars League
    154 caps · 38G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.68rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
  • 11 Akram Afif 29 yr
    Al Sadd · Stars League
    121 caps · 40G · 23 since 2024 (7G/11A · 7.95rtg)  |  club 11G · 6A · 8.18 rtg
  • 9 Mohammed Muntari 32 yr
    Al-Gharafa · Stars League
    68 caps · 15G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.77rtg)
  • 7 Ahmed Alaa 32 yr
    Al-Rayyan SC · Stars League
    66 caps · 4G · 3 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.77rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.66 rtg
  • 17 Ahmed Al Ganehi 25 yr
    Al-Gharafa · Stars League
    20 caps · 2G · 16 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.93rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A · 6.45 rtg
  • 8 Edmilson Junior 31 yr
    Al-Duhail SC · Stars League
    12 caps · 12 since 2024 (6.9rtg)  |  club 4G · 1A · 7.19 rtg
  • 24 Tahsin Jamshid 19 yr
    Al-Duhail SC · Stars League
    4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.84rtg)
+ 1 more in the broader pool
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
ATT · additional
  • 15 Y. Abdurisag 26 yr
    Al Wakrah · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 0–0 vs El Salvador
L 0–1 @ Republic of Ireland
L 0–3 vs TUN
D 1–1 vs Syria
L 0–1 vs Palestine
L 1–2 vs Zimbabwe

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(QAT win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-13 H vs Switzerland (SUI) 12.4% 18.6%
2026-06-18 A vs Canada (CAN) 16.6% 20.1%
2026-06-24 A vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) 28.9% 25.9%

Where the squad plays

23 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
40.2/100
vs model strength -28.1
Top-5 leagues
0%
Unrated leagues
3%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Stars League Qatar 20 91.7% 40
Segunda División Spain 1 5.2% 50
Qatar Cup (unrated) 2 3.1% 30

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -28.1 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Qatar (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.