← Fixtures

Group A · RSA · outside top-16

South Africa

Strength

71.2

± 1.7

Attack

68.4

0–100

Defense

73.1

0–100

P(champion)

0.07%

0.3% reach final

Strength trajectory

70.5 → 71.4 · +0.9

2023-03-31 range 69.8–71.4 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.07%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · 0.0pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · 0.0pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

8.9%

R16

15.6%

Quarter

4.6%

Semi

1.1%

Final

0.3%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

FNB Stadium

Johannesburg · 94,736 seats (WC avg 55,865; +38,871)

Age profile

mean 25.8 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 R. Williams 33 yr

Mamelodi Sundowns · Premier Soccer League

59 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.2rtg)
22 R. Goss 31 yr

Siwelele · Premier Soccer League

8 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
16 S. Chaine 29 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.66rtg)

DEF Defenders · 10

6 A. Modiba 30 yr

Mamelodi Sundowns · Premier Soccer League

45 caps · 3G · 15 since 2024 (3G/2A · 5.9rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 6.98 rtg
20 K. Mudau 30 yr

Mamelodi Sundowns · Premier Soccer League

34 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.3rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.05 rtg
19 N. Sibisi 30 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

28 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.0rtg)
14 M. Mbokazi 20 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

11 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.5rtg)
2 T. Matuludi 26 yr

Polokwane City · Premier Soccer League

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.74rtg) | club 2G · 7.32 rtg
21 I. Okon 21 yr

Hannover 96 · 2. Bundesliga

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.2rtg) | club 2G · 6.71 rtg
18 S. Kabini 21 yr

Molde · Eliteserien

6 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.83rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 7.33 rtg
3 K. Ndamane 21 yr

TS Galaxy · Premier Soccer League

6 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.12 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 7

11 T. Zwane Top scorer 36 yr

Mamelodi Sundowns · Premier Soccer League

47 caps · 14G · 9 since 2024 (2G/1A · 5.2rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.66 rtg
4 T. Mokoena 28 yr

Mamelodi Sundowns · Premier Soccer League

55 caps · 10G · 15 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 7.27 rtg
13 S. Sithole 26 yr

Tondela · Primeira Liga

29 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 4.9rtg) | club 1G · 6.62 rtg
23 J. Adams 24 yr

Mamelodi Sundowns · Premier Soccer League

24 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.7rtg) | club 1G · 6.92 rtg
5 T. Mbatha 25 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

18 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.26 rtg
25 K. Sebelebele 23 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

12 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.71rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 7.26 rtg
8 T. Moremi 25 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

12 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.73rtg) | club 5G · 4A · 6.89 rtg

ATT Attackers · 6

9 L. Foster Top minutes 25 yr

Burnley · Premier League

33 caps · 13G · 12 since 2024 (4G/2A · 5.9rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 6.47 rtg
7 O. Appollis 24 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

33 caps · 8G · 18 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.700000000000001rtg) | club 9G · 6A · 7.18 rtg
15 I. Rayners 30 yr

Mamelodi Sundowns · Premier Soccer League

31 caps · 7G · 20 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.2rtg) | club 12G · 3A · 6.65 rtg
99 E. Makgopa 25 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

28 caps · 6G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 6G · 4A · 6.71 rtg
10 R. Mofokeng 21 yr

Orlando Pirates · Premier Soccer League

14 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.91rtg) | club 10G · 8A · 7.53 rtg
12 T. Maseko 22 yr

AEL · 1. Division

9 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.95rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.49 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

24 O. Makhanya 21 yr

Philadelphia Union · 1c
26 B. Cross 24 yr

Kaizer Chiefs · 1c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 0–2 @ MEX

D 1–1 @ Jamaica

D 0–0 vs Nicaragua

L 1–2 vs PAN

D 1–1 vs PAN

L 1–2 v Cameroon

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(RSA win)	P(draw)
2026-06-11	A vs Mexico (MEX)	16.0%	24.5%
2026-06-18	A vs Czech Republic (CZE)	25.5%	28.9%
2026-06-24	H vs South Korea (KOR)	24.2%	30.0%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

42.6/100

vs model strength -28.6

Top-5 leagues

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier Soccer League	South-Africa	20	79.3%	38
Major League Soccer	USA	1	5.6%	50
2. Bundesliga	Germany	1	3.9%	52
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	3.6%	70
Eliteserien	Norway	1	3.5%	45
Premier League	England	1	3.2%	100
1. Division	Cyprus	1	0.9%	38

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -28.6 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources