← Fixtures

Group F · SWE · outside top-16

Sweden

Strength

77.4

± 1.5

Attack

78.2

0–100

Defense

75.4

0–100

P(champion)

0.37%

1.2% reach final

Strength trajectory

79.2 → 77.6 · -1.6

2023-03-31 range 77.3–79.2 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.37%

to lift

Polymarket

0.3%

implied · 0.0pp

Kalshi

0.2%

implied · +0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

16.4%

R16

21.8%

Quarter

10.2%

Semi

3.8%

Final

1.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Strawberry Arena

Solna · 50,653 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,212)

Age profile

mean 26.6 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 K. Nordfeldt 36 yr

AIK Stockholm · Allsvenskan

19 caps · 2 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.0rtg)
12 V. Johansson 27 yr

Stoke City · Championship

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.95rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.2 rtg
1 J. Widell Zetterström 27 yr

Derby · Championship

9 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.88rtg)

DEF Defenders · 7

3 V. Lindelöf 31 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

75 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.92rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.67 rtg
4 I. Hien 26 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

28 caps · 20 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.94rtg) | club 1G · 6.87 rtg
15 C. Starfelt 30 yr

Celta Vigo · La Liga

17 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.97rtg)
2 G. Lagerbielke 25 yr

SC Braga · Primeira Liga

10 caps · 2G · 8 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.92rtg) | club 2G · 7.03 rtg
8 D. Svensson 23 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

12 caps · 12 since 2024 (6.84rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.76 rtg
14 H. Ekdal 27 yr

Burnley · Premier League

12 caps · 6 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.76rtg)
20 E. Smith 28 yr

FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (5.9rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.88 rtg

MID Midfielders · 11

19 M. Svanberg 26 yr

VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

39 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.07rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.61 rtg
13 K. Sema 32 yr

Pafos · 1. Division

29 caps · 5G · 15 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.13rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.68 rtg
18 Y. Ayari 22 yr

Brighton · Premier League

20 caps · 3G · 18 since 2024 (3G/2A · 7.06rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 6.76 rtg
16 J. Karlström Top minutes 30 yr

Udinese · Serie A

23 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.57rtg) | club 1G · 6.78 rtg
5 G. Gudmundsson 26 yr

Leeds · Premier League

23 caps · 17 since 2024 (7.02rtg)
7 L. Bergvall 19 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

21 caps · 21 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.98rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.57 rtg
21 A. Bernhardsson 27 yr

Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga

10 caps · 9 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.73rtg) | club 2G · 9A · 7.2 rtg
22 B. Zeneli 23 yr

IF Elfsborg · Allsvenskan

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.55rtg) | club 2G · 8A · 7.45 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

17 V. Gyökeres Top scorer 27 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

38 caps · 24G · 21 since 2024 (20G/6A · 7.8rtg) | club 14G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
9 A. Isak 26 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

45 caps · 13G · 15 since 2024 (7G/2A · 7.75rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.51 rtg
11 A. Elanga 23 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

29 caps · 6G · 16 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.75rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.57 rtg
10 B. Nygren 24 yr

Celtic · Premiership

10 caps · 3G · 10 since 2024 (3G/2A · 6.92rtg) | club 16G · 5A · 7.16 rtg
25 G. Nilsson 28 yr

Club Brugge KV · Super Cup

7 caps · 2G · 7 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.14rtg) | club 5G · 6.755172 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

6 H. Johansson 28 yr

Mjallby AIF · 3c
26 T. Ali 27 yr

Malmo FF · 1c
24 E. Stroud 23 yr

Mjallby AIF

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 2–2 vs Greece

L 1–3 @ NOR

W 3–2 vs Poland

W 3–1 v Ukraine

D 1–1 vs Slovenia

L 1–4 @ SUI

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(SWE win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	H vs Tunisia (TUN)	41.3%	29.6%
2026-06-20	A vs Netherlands (NED)	23.7%	23.4%
2026-06-25	A vs Japan (JPN)	31.3%	27.0%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

72.5/100

vs model strength -4.9

Top-5 leagues

50%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	8	25.2%	100
Allsvenskan	Sweden	5	22.7%	45
Bundesliga	Germany	3	11.8%	90
Championship	England	2	10.4%	55
Serie A	Italy	2	10.4%	88
Premiership	Scotland	1	5.2%	50
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	4.9%	70
La Liga	Spain	1	3.0%	95
2. Bundesliga	Germany	1	2.9%	52
Super Cup (unrated)		1	2.1%	30
1. Division	Cyprus	1	1.3%	38

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -4.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources