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Group J · AUT · outside top-16

Austria

Strength

77.7

± 1.6

Attack

77.4

0–100

Defense

76.7

0–100

P(champion)

0.43%

1.7% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.7 → 77.7 · +2.0

2023-03-31 range 75.7–77.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.43%

to lift

Polymarket

0.4%

implied · -0.0pp

Kalshi

0.2%

implied · +0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

13.5%

R16

26.7%

Quarter

11.6%

Semi

4.5%

Final

1.7%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Vienna · 50,865 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,000)

Age profile

mean 27.5 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 A. Schlager 29 yr

Red Bull Salzburg · Bundesliga

25 caps · 12 since 2024 (6.86rtg)
13 P. Pentz 28 yr

Brondby · Superliga

18 caps · 14 since 2024 (6.88rtg)
12 F. Wiegele 24 yr

Plzen · Czech Liga

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.2rtg)

DEF Defenders · 10

8 D. Alaba 33 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

106 caps · 14G · 8 since 2024 (14G/1A · 7.19rtg)
20 K. Laimer 28 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

49 caps · 6G · 25 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.95rtg) | club 3G · 9A · 6.82 rtg
5 S. Posch 28 yr

FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

47 caps · 4G · 24 since 2024 (4G/5A · 7.28rtg)
15 P. Lienhart 29 yr

SC Freiburg · Bundesliga

39 caps · 3G · 22 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.25rtg) | club 1G · 6.98 rtg
3 K. Danso 27 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

32 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.2rtg)
16 P. Mwene 31 yr

FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

30 caps · 21 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.86rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.82 rtg
22 A. Prass 24 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

19 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.17rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 6.82 rtg
23 M. Friedl 27 yr

Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

11 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.12rtg) | club 1G · 6.88 rtg
2 D. Affengruber Top minutes 24 yr

Elche · La Liga

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.7rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.93 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 11

9 M. Sabitzer 31 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

94 caps · 26G · 21 since 2024 (9G/7A · 7.66rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.92 rtg
11 M. Gregoritsch 31 yr

FC Augsburg · Bundesliga

69 caps · 23G · 24 since 2024 (12G/2A · 7.03rtg) | club 6G · 2A · 6.75 rtg
19 C. Baumgartner 26 yr

RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

62 caps · 20G · 24 since 2024 (8G/5A · 7.13rtg) | club 13G · 8A · 6.92 rtg
10 F. Grillitsch 30 yr

SC Braga · Primeira Liga

56 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.84rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
4 X. Schlager 28 yr

RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

48 caps · 4G · 10 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.93rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.93 rtg
26 A. Schöpf 31 yr

Wolfsberger AC · Bundesliga

40 caps · 7G · 3 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.57rtg) | club 5G · 5A · 6.82 rtg
6 N. Seiwald 24 yr

RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

47 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.14rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.88 rtg
18 R. Schmid 25 yr

Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

34 caps · 3G · 27 since 2024 (3G/5A · 7.07rtg) | club 4G · 8A · 6.94 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 2

7 M. Arnautovic Top scorer 36 yr

FK Crvena Zvezda · Super Liga

119 caps · 40G · 22 since 2024 (11G/3A · 7.19rtg) | club 7G · 8A · 7.05 rtg
14 S. Kalajdzic 28 yr

Lask Linz · Bundesliga

26 caps · 5G · 3 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.43rtg) | club 6G · 5A · 7.07 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

2 D. Affengruber 24 yr

Elche · 1c

MID · additional

21 P. Wimmer 24 yr

VfL Wolfsburg · 30c/1g
17 C. Chukwuemeka 22 yr

Borussia Dortmund · 3c/1g
24 P. Wanner 20 yr

PSV Eindhoven · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 1–0 vs TUN

W 1–0 vs KOR

W 5–1 vs GHA

D 1–1 vs BIH

W 2–0 @ Cyprus

L 0–1 @ Romania

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(AUT win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	H vs Jordan (JOR)	55.3%	25.1%
2026-06-22	A vs Argentina (ARG)	15.7%	25.1%
2026-06-27	A vs Algeria (ALG)	39.9%	26.6%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

77.9/100

vs model strength +0.2

Top-5 leagues

65%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Bundesliga	Germany	14	54.7%	90
Bundesliga	Austria	3	12.4%	52
La Liga	Spain	2	7.0%	95
Superliga	Denmark	1	5.8%	50
Serie B	Italy	1	5.3%	50
Czech Liga	Czech-Republic	1	3.7%	48
Eredivisie	Netherlands	1	3.4%	72
Premier League	England	1	3.2%	100
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	2.4%	70
Super Liga	Serbia	1	2.1%	45

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +0.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources