← Fixtures

Group G · BEL

Belgium

Strength

82.8

± 1.5

Attack

83.7

0–100

Defense

80.2

0–100

P(champion)

4.08%

9.1% reach final

Strength trajectory

84.1 → 82.6 · -1.5

2023-03-31 range 82.5–84.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

4.08%

to lift

Polymarket

2.0%

implied · +2.1pp

Kalshi

1.9%

implied · +2.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

60.9%

R16

65.1%

Quarter

39.3%

Semi

18.2%

Final

9.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

King Baudouin Stadium

Brussels · 50,093 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,772)

Age profile

mean 26.7 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 T. Courtois 33 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

101 caps · 8 since 2024 (7.046739130434782rtg)
12 S. Lammens 23 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.75rtg)
13 M. Penders 20 yr

Strasbourg · Ligue 1

DEF Defenders · 9

15 T. Meunier 34 yr

Lille · Ligue 1

77 caps · 10G · 16 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.622330097087379rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.87 rtg
21 T. Castagne 30 yr

Fulham · Premier League

58 caps · 24 since 2024 (0G/3A · 7.6rtg)
3 A. Theate 25 yr

Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga

33 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.11rtg) | club 1G · 6.8 rtg
5 M. De Cuyper 25 yr

Brighton · Premier League

20 caps · 4G · 20 since 2024 (4G/4A · 6.852808988764046rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.86 rtg
2 Z. Debast 22 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

26 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.07rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 7.12 rtg
4 B. Mechele 32 yr

Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League

10 caps · 1G · 7 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.086206896551724rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 7.3 rtg
16 K. De Winter 23 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

8 caps · 8 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.43rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.88 rtg
18 J. Seys 20 yr

Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.98rtg) | club 2G · 5A · 6.81 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 8

7 K. De Bruyne 34 yr

Napoli · Serie A

114 caps · 33G · 21 since 2024 (11G/3A · 7.969387755102041rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
6 A. Witsel 36 yr

Girona · La Liga

130 caps · 10G · 9 since 2024 (10G/0A · 6.758064516129032rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
8 Y. Tielemans 28 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

77 caps · 12G · 21 since 2024 (9G/3A · 8.064634146341463rtg) | club 0G · 4A · 7.21 rtg
10 L. Trossard 31 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

51 caps · 12G · 21 since 2024 (5G/1A · 7.200000000000001rtg) | club 6G · 6A · 6.96 rtg
11 J. Doku 23 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

46 caps · 7G · 26 since 2024 (5G/6A · 8.60952380952381rtg) | club 5G · 5A · 7.39 rtg
20 H. Vanaken 33 yr

Club Brugge KV · Super Cup

33 caps · 7G · 12 since 2024 (2G/4A · 6.732rtg) | club 14G · 6A · 7.2925 rtg
24 A. Onana 24 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

30 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.45187969924812rtg) | club 2G · 7.03 rtg
23 N. Raskin 24 yr

Rangers · Premiership

14 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.410752688172043rtg) | club 6G · 7A · 7.46 rtg

ATT Attackers · 6

9 R. Lukaku Top scorer 32 yr

Napoli · Serie A

122 caps · 87G · 14 since 2024 (8G/2A · 6.640000000000001rtg) | club 1G · 6.63 rtg
17 C. De Ketelaere 24 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

31 caps · 6G · 17 since 2024 (4G/3A · 7.292086330935252rtg) | club 3G · 5A · 7.25 rtg
14 D. Lukebakio 28 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

30 caps · 6G · 18 since 2024 (4G/0A · 8.5rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 7.04 rtg
22 A. Saelemaekers Top minutes 26 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

24 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (1G/5A · 7.25rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 7.17 rtg
26 M. Fernandez-Pardo 20 yr

Lille · Ligue 1

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.9702702702702695rtg) | club 8G · 5A · 7.0 rtg
19 D. Moreira 21 yr

Strasbourg · Ligue 1

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.3rtg) | club 4G · 6A · 7.02 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

25 N. Ngoy 22 yr

Lille · 5c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 5–0 vs TUN

W 2–0 @ CRO

D 1–1 v MEX

W 5–2 @ USA

W 7–0 vs Liechtenstein

D 1–1 @ Kazakhstan

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(BEL win)	P(draw)
2026-06-15	H vs Egypt (EGY)	53.2%	27.0%
2026-06-21	H vs Iran (IRN)	51.2%	26.2%
2026-06-26	A vs New Zealand (NZL)	72.7%	18.6%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

81.1/100

vs model strength -1.7

Top-5 leagues

74%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	7	24.6%	100
Ligue 1	France	5	21.0%	80
Serie A	Italy	5	14.4%	88
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	2	11.5%	65
La Liga	Spain	2	9.7%	95
Super Cup (unrated)		1	6.4%	30
Premiership	Scotland	1	5.0%	50
Bundesliga	Germany	1	3.8%	90
Primeira Liga	Portugal	2	3.5%	70

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -1.7 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources