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Group B · BIH · outside top-16

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Strength

71.5

± 1.7

Attack

70.9

0–100

Defense

71.4

0–100

P(champion)

0.04%

0.2% reach final

Strength trajectory

74.0 → 71.4 · -2.6

2023-03-31 range 70.2–74.0 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.04%

to lift

Kalshi

0.5%

implied · -0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

9.1%

R16

20.0%

Quarter

5.3%

Semi

1.1%

Final

0.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Bilino Polje

Zenica · 13,812 seats (WC avg 55,865; -42,053)

Age profile

mean 25.8 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 N. Vasilj 30 yr

FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

38 caps · 21 since 2024 (6.2rtg)
22 M. Zlomislic 27 yr

HNK Rijeka · HNL

23 caps · 23 since 2024 (7.0rtg)
12 M. Jurkas 29 yr

—

DEF Defenders · 8

5 S. Kolasinac 32 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

76 caps · 1G · 18 since 2024 (1G/4A · 8.0rtg)
7 A. Dedic 23 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

38 caps · 1G · 25 since 2024 (1G/3A · 7.0rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 6.8 rtg
3 D. Hadzikadunic 27 yr

Sampdoria · Serie B

29 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.78rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.88 rtg
21 S. Radeljic 28 yr

HNK Rijeka · HNL

27 caps · 27 since 2024 (6.93rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.2 rtg
18 N. Katic 29 yr

FC Schalke 04 · 2. Bundesliga

19 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/0A · 8.2rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.97 rtg
4 T. Muharemovic Top minutes 22 yr

Sassuolo · Serie A

12 caps · 12 since 2024 (7.6rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.86 rtg
2 N. Mujakic 27 yr

Eyüpspor · Süper Lig

10 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.48rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.64 rtg
24 N. Celik 19 yr

Lens · Ligue 1

MID Midfielders · 9

6 B. Tahirovic 22 yr

Brondby · Superliga

34 caps · 1G · 26 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.3rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.75 rtg
16 A. Hadziahmetovic 28 yr

Hull City · Championship

34 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.43rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.78 rtg
8 A. Gigovic 23 yr

BSC Young Boys · Super League

19 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.6rtg) | club 1G · 5A · 6.76 rtg
14 I. Sunjic 29 yr

Pafos · 1. Division

23 caps · 23 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.5rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.79 rtg
17 D. Burnic 27 yr

Karlsruher SC · 2. Bundesliga

22 caps · 22 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.55 rtg
13 I. Basic 23 yr

FC Astana · Premier League

18 caps · 15 since 2024 (7.5rtg)
15 A. Memic 24 yr

Plzen · Czech Liga

15 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.2rtg) | club 3G · 8A · 6.98 rtg
19 Kerim-Sam Alajbegovic 18 yr

Red Bull Salzburg · Bundesliga

8 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.3rtg) | club 9G · 3A · 7.3 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 6

11 E. Dzeko Top scorer 39 yr

FC Schalke 04 · 2. Bundesliga

174 caps · 93G · 28 since 2024 (12G/1A · 7.26rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 7.38 rtg
10 E. Demirovic 27 yr

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

49 caps · 6G · 25 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 12G · 3A · 6.9 rtg
23 H. Tabakovic 31 yr

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga

15 caps · 3G · 14 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.91rtg) | club 13G · 2A · 6.71 rtg
20 E. Bajraktarevic 20 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

16 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.2rtg) | club 4G · 4A · 6.99 rtg
9 S. Bazdar 21 yr

Jagiellonia · Ekstraklasa

13 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 3G · 6.67 rtg
25 J. Lukic 27 yr

Universitatea Cluj · Liga I

2 caps · 1G · 1 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.5rtg) | club 18G · 2A · 7.18 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

26 Ermin Mahmic 20 yr

Slovan Liberec

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 @ CAN

D 1–1 @ PAN

D 0–0 vs North Macedonia

W 1–1 vs Italy

W 1–1 @ Wales

D 1–1 @ AUT

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(BIH win)	P(draw)
2026-06-12	A vs Canada (CAN)	22.6%	24.3%
2026-06-18	A vs Switzerland (SUI)	17.4%	23.4%
2026-06-24	H vs Qatar (QAT)	45.2%	25.9%

Where the squad plays

25 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

62.5/100

vs model strength -9.0

Top-5 leagues

27%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Bundesliga	Germany	3	16.0%	90
2. Bundesliga	Germany	3	11.4%	52
HNL	Croatia	2	11.3%	55
Serie A	Italy	2	9.3%	88
Czech Liga	Czech-Republic	2	9.0%	48
Liga I	Romania	1	5.8%	42
Serie B	Italy	1	5.1%	50
Championship	England	1	5.0%	55
Super League	Switzerland	1	4.9%	55
Bundesliga	Austria	1	4.4%	52
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	4.4%	70
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	3.1%	60
Superliga	Denmark	1	2.8%	50
1. Division	Cyprus	1	2.5%	38
Eredivisie	Netherlands	1	2.4%	72
Ligue 1	France	1	1.4%	80
Ekstraklasa	Poland	1	0.9%	48
Premier League	Kazakhstan	1	0.2%	35

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -9.0 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources