← Fixtures

Group E · CIV · outside top-16

Ivory Coast

Strength

76.1

± 1.8

Attack

73.7

0–100

Defense

77.2

0–100

P(champion)

0.41%

1.2% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.9 → 76.0 · +0.1

2023-03-31 range 75.1–76.0 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.41%

to lift

Polymarket

0.3%

implied · +0.1pp

Kalshi

0.2%

implied · +0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

12.5%

R16

32.5%

Quarter

11.3%

Semi

3.8%

Final

1.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Alassane Ouattara Stadium

Abidjan · 60,012 seats (WC avg 55,865; +4,147)

Age profile

mean 24.9 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 Y. Fofana 25 yr

Rizespor · Süper Lig

30 caps · 13 since 2024 (7.02rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.78 rtg
23 A. Lafont 26 yr

Panathinaikos · Super League 1

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.4rtg)
16 M. Koné 23 yr

Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League

DEF Defenders · 8

3 G. Konan 30 yr

GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga

45 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.27rtg)
7 O. Kossounou 24 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

34 caps · 11 since 2024 (7.13rtg) | club 1G · 6.65 rtg
21 E. Ndicka Top minutes 26 yr

AS Roma · Serie A

33 caps · 19 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.87rtg) | club 3G · 6.97 rtg
5 W. Singo 25 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

29 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.2rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.88 rtg
2 O. Diomande 22 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

22 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.73rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.06 rtg
20 E. Agbadou 28 yr

Wolves · Premier League

20 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.22rtg)
17 G. Doué 23 yr

Strasbourg · Ligue 1

16 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.01rtg) | club 2G · 6A · 6.92 rtg
13 C. Operi 28 yr

Başakşehir · Süper Lig

7 caps · 6 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.34rtg) | club 0G · 4A · 6.97 rtg

MID Midfielders · 8

8 F. Kessié Top scorer 29 yr

Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League

79 caps · 13G · 17 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.76rtg) | club 5G · 3A · 7.0 rtg
4 J. Seri 34 yr

Maribor · 1. SNL

67 caps · 5G · 12 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.03rtg)
18 I. Sangaré 28 yr

Nottingham Forest · Premier League

47 caps · 10G · 8 since 2024 (10G/0A · 6.92rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.97 rtg
6 S. Fofana 30 yr

Rennes · Ligue 1

32 caps · 9G · 13 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.96rtg) | club 1G · 6.85 rtg
14 O. Diakité 22 yr

Cercle Brugge · Jupiler Pro League

30 caps · 5G · 17 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.87rtg) | club 7G · 6.6 rtg
26 C. Inao Oulai 19 yr

Trabzonspor · Süper Lig

8 caps · 8 since 2024 (7.05rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 7.06 rtg
11 Y. Diomande 19 yr

RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

5 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.46rtg) | club 12G · 8A · 7.72 rtg
25 P. Guiagon 24 yr

Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.36rtg) | club 9G · 5A · 7.07 rtg

ATT Attackers · 7

19 N. Pépé 30 yr

Villarreal · La Liga

51 caps · 12G · 7 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.19rtg) | club 8G · 8A · 7.25 rtg
10 S. Adingra 23 yr

Monaco · Ligue 1

23 caps · 4G · 9 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.47rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 6.71 rtg
22 E. Guessand 24 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

17 caps · 3G · 14 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.68rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.41 rtg
15 A. Diallo 23 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

13 caps · 4G · 9 since 2024 (3G/2A · 7.51rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.89 rtg
24 B. Touré 19 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

4 caps · 2G · 4 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.32rtg) | club 5G · 9A · 6.9 rtg
12 E. Wahi 22 yr

Nice · Ligue 1

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.0rtg) | club 7G · 1A · 6.81 rtg
9 A. Bonny 22 yr

Inter · Serie A

| club 5G · 4A · 6.76 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–1 @ FRA

W 1–0 v SCO

W 4–0 v KOR

L 2–3 v EGY

W 3–0 v Burkina Faso

W 3–2 v Gabon

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(CIV win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	H vs Ecuador (ECU)	24.6%	33.1%
2026-06-20	A vs Germany (GER)	19.7%	23.8%
2026-06-25	A vs Curaçao (CUW)	65.5%	22.6%

Where the squad plays

25 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

77.4/100

vs model strength +1.3

Top-5 leagues

52%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Süper Lig	Turkey	4	16.7%	60
Premier League	England	4	14.0%	100
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	3	13.0%	65
Serie A	Italy	3	11.1%	88
Bundesliga	Germany	2	11.0%	90
Ligue 1	France	4	10.6%	80
Primeira Liga	Portugal	2	9.0%	70
La Liga	Spain	1	5.5%	95
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	1	4.8%	60
Super League 1	Greece	1	4.4%	55

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +1.3 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources