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Group L · CRO

Croatia

Strength

80.7

± 1.7

Attack

79.9

0–100

Defense

79.8

0–100

P(champion)

2.21%

5.1% reach final

Strength trajectory

81.0 → 80.8 · -0.2

2023-03-31 range 80.4–81.4 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

2.21%

to lift

Polymarket

0.8%

implied · +1.4pp

Kalshi

0.7%

implied · +1.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

29.0%

R16

46.6%

Quarter

23.5%

Semi

11.4%

Final

5.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stadion Maksimir

Zagreb · 25,912 seats (WC avg 55,865; -29,953)

Age profile

mean 27.3 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 D. Livakovic 31 yr

Dinamo Zagreb · HNL

71 caps · 22 since 2024 (7.03rtg)
23 D. Kotarski 25 yr

FC Copenhagen · Superliga

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.64rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.86 rtg
12 I. Pandur 25 yr

Hull City · Championship

DEF Defenders · 7

4 J. Gvardiol 23 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

51 caps · 4G · 20 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.11rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 7.01 rtg
5 D. Caleta-Car 29 yr

Real Sociedad · La Liga

38 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.09rtg) | club 1G · 6.81 rtg
6 J. Sutalo 25 yr

Ajax · Eredivisie

33 caps · 19 since 2024 (7.16rtg)
2 J. Stanisic 25 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

31 caps · 14 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.13rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.92 rtg
3 M. Pongracic 28 yr

Fiorentina · Serie A

21 caps · 14 since 2024 (6.78rtg)
25 M. Erlic 27 yr

FC Midtjylland · Superliga

14 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.96rtg) | club 2G · 6.82 rtg
22 L. Vuskovic 18 yr

Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

5 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.23rtg) | club 6G · 7.26 rtg

MID Midfielders · 13

14 I. Perisic Top scorer 36 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

144 caps · 35G · 24 since 2024 (5G/5A · 7.3rtg) | club 7G · 12A · 7.23 rtg
10 L. Modric 40 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

159 caps · 22G · 25 since 2024 (4G/2A · 7.52rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 7.55 rtg
9 A. Kramaric 34 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

111 caps · 34G · 26 since 2024 (9G/1A · 7.26rtg) | club 14G · 6A · 7.07 rtg
8 M. Kovacic 31 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

107 caps · 4G · 15 since 2024 (4G/0A · 7.28rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.8 rtg
15 M. Pasalic 30 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

81 caps · 11G · 24 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.04rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 6.88 rtg
13 N. Vlasic 28 yr

Torino · Serie A

56 caps · 7G · 9 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.57rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 6.92 rtg
18 K. Jakic 28 yr

FC Augsburg · Bundesliga

20 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.36rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.77 rtg
21 L. Sucic 23 yr

Real Sociedad · La Liga

20 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.0rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.77 rtg

+ 5 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 3

11 A. Budimir Top minutes 34 yr

Osasuna · La Liga

39 caps · 6G · 18 since 2024 (4G/2A · 6.76rtg) | club 17G · 6.84 rtg
26 P. Musa 27 yr

FC Dallas · Major League Soccer

11 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.82rtg) | club 19G · 6A · 7.38 rtg
20 I. Matanovic 22 yr

SC Freiburg · Bundesliga

8 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.78rtg) | club 11G · 2A · 6.81 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

16 M. Baturina 22 yr

Como · 18c/1g
17 P. Sucic 22 yr

Inter · 16c/1g
24 M. Pasalic 25 yr

Orlando City SC · 14c/1g
7 N. Moro 27 yr

Bologna · 10c
19 T. Fruk 24 yr

HNK Rijeka · 7c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–1 vs Slovenia

L 0–2 vs BEL

L 1–3 v BRA

W 2–1 v COL

W 3–2 @ Montenegro

W 3–1 vs Faroe Islands

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(CRO win)	P(draw)
2026-06-17	A vs England (ENG)	22.9%	28.8%
2026-06-23	A vs Panama (PAN)	63.4%	22.0%
2026-06-27	H vs Ghana (GHA)	57.5%	25.2%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

77.1/100

vs model strength -3.6

Top-5 leagues

61%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Serie A	Italy	7	29.3%	88
Bundesliga	Germany	5	17.9%	90
La Liga	Spain	3	11.3%	95
Major League Soccer	USA	2	9.5%	50
Championship	England	1	7.9%	55
Superliga	Denmark	2	7.8%	50
Eredivisie	Netherlands	2	7.4%	72
HNL	Croatia	2	6.1%	55
Premier League	England	2	2.8%	100

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -3.6 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources