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Group H · ESP

Spain

Strength

87.5

± 1.8

Attack

87.5

0–100

Defense

85.2

0–100

P(champion)

14.18%

22.8% reach final

Strength trajectory

86.6 → 87.7 · +1.1

2023-03-31 range 86.6–87.8 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

14.18%

to lift

Polymarket

16.5%

implied · -2.3pp

Kalshi

15.7%

implied · -1.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

70.1%

R16

69.9%

Quarter

48.0%

Semi

34.8%

Final

22.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Santiago Bernabéu

Madrid · 83,186 seats (WC avg 55,865; +27,321)

Age profile

mean 25.7 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 Unai Simón 28 yr

Athletic Club · La Liga

61 caps · 17 since 2024 (7.13rtg)
1 David Raya 30 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

12 caps · 9 since 2024 (7.1rtg)
13 Joan García 24 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.7rtg)

DEF Defenders · 7

14 Aymeric Laporte 31 yr

Athletic Club · La Liga

50 caps · 3G · 18 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.42rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.85 rtg
24 Marc Cucurella 27 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

21 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.28rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 6.68 rtg
4 Eric García 24 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

22 caps | club 1G · 2A · 7.06 rtg
12 Pedro Porro 26 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

14 caps · 12 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.5rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.89 rtg
3 Álex Grimaldo 30 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.65rtg) | club 8G · 8A · 7.32 rtg
22 Pau Cubarsí Paredes 18 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

11 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.08rtg) | club 1G · 7.21 rtg
2 Marc Pubill 22 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

| club 1G · 1A · 7.11 rtg

MID Midfielders · 11

7 Ferran Torres Top scorer 25 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

61 caps · 25G · 15 since 2024 (5G/3A · 6.89rtg) | club 16G · 2A · 6.83 rtg
10 Dani Olmo 27 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

47 caps · 11G · 15 since 2024 (5G/3A · 7.26rtg) | club 7G · 8A · 7.03 rtg
16 Rodri 29 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

57 caps · 4G · 13 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.17rtg) | club 1G · 7.46 rtg
6 Mikel Merino 29 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

39 caps · 10G · 20 since 2024 (9G/0A · 7.5rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 6.86 rtg
20 Pedri 23 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

44 caps · 5G · 20 since 2024 (5G/3A · 7.49rtg) | club 2G · 9A · 7.54 rtg
8 Fabián Ruiz 29 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

33 caps · 5G · 18 since 2024 (5G/4A · 7.57rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 7.11 rtg
9 Gavi 21 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

27 caps · 5G | club 0G · 1A · 6.87 rtg
18 Martín Zubimendi Top minutes 26 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

23 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.31rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.06 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

21 Mikel Oyarzabal 28 yr

Real Sociedad · La Liga

44 caps · 22G · 24 since 2024 (17G/7A · 7.5rtg) | club 15G · 4A · 7.08 rtg
17 Nico Williams 23 yr

Athletic Club · La Liga

28 caps · 6G · 17 since 2024 (4G/3A · 7.23rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 6.97 rtg
19 Lamine Yamal 18 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

23 caps · 6G · 19 since 2024 (4G/8A · 7.67rtg) | club 16G · 11A · 7.95 rtg
26 Borja Iglesias 32 yr

Celta Vigo · La Liga

6 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.44rtg) | club 14G · 2A · 6.75 rtg
25 Víctor Muñoz 22 yr

Osasuna · La Liga

2 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.3rtg) | club 6G · 2A · 6.89 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

11 Yeremy Pino 23 yr

Crystal Palace · 20c/4g
5 Marcos Llorente 30 yr

Atletico Madrid · 27c
15 Álex Baena 24 yr

Atletico Madrid · 14c/2g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 3–1 @ Peru

D 1–1 vs IRQ

D 0–0 vs EGY

W 3–0 vs Serbia

D 2–2 vs TUR

W 4–0 @ Georgia

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(ESP win)	P(draw)
2026-06-15	H vs Cape Verde (CPV)	77.9%	15.2%
2026-06-21	H vs Saudi Arabia (KSA)	74.8%	17.5%
2026-06-26	A vs Uruguay (URU)	48.8%	28.3%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

95.9/100

vs model strength +8.4

Top-5 leagues

100%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
La Liga	Spain	17	64.5%	95
Premier League	England	7	29.1%	100
Bundesliga	Germany	1	4.4%	90
Ligue 1	France	1	2.0%	80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +8.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources