← Fixtures

Group I · FRA

France

Strength

84.9

± 1.6

Attack

83.9

0–100

Defense

83.7

0–100

P(champion)

6.49%

12.8% reach final

Strength trajectory

85.1 → 85.1 · 0.0

2023-03-31 range 84.9–85.3 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

6.49%

to lift

Polymarket

15.7%

implied · -9.2pp

Kalshi

15.9%

implied · -9.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

59.0%

R16

63.4%

Quarter

38.5%

Semi

23.4%

Final

12.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Groupama Stadium

Saint-Denis · 80,698 seats (WC avg 55,865; +24,833)

Age profile

mean 26.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

16 M. Maignan 30 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

37 caps · 24 since 2024 (7.13rtg)
1 B. Samba 31 yr

Rennes · Ligue 1

4 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.25rtg)
23 R. Risser 21 yr

Lens · Ligue 1

| club 0G · 1A · 7.08 rtg

DEF Defenders · 9

3 L. Digne 32 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

50 caps · 10 since 2024 (0G/4A · 7.45rtg) | club 0G · 6A · 6.78 rtg
5 J. Koundé 27 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

47 caps · 22 since 2024 (7.29rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.92 rtg
19 T. Hernández 28 yr

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League

41 caps · 2G · 18 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.27rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.08 rtg
4 D. Upamecano 27 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

36 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.19rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 7.22 rtg
21 L. Hernández 29 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

38 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.97rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 7.07 rtg
17 W. Saliba 24 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

31 caps · 19 since 2024 (7.12rtg) | club 1G · 7.04 rtg
15 I. Konaté Top minutes 26 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

26 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.97rtg) | club 1G · 7.07 rtg
2 M. Gusto 22 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

8 caps · 7 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.35rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.66 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 11

14 A. Rabiot 30 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

60 caps · 7G · 14 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.26rtg) | club 6G · 4A · 7.24 rtg
7 O. Dembélé 28 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

59 caps · 7G · 15 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.39rtg) | club 10G · 7A · 7.41 rtg
13 N. Kanté 34 yr

Al-Ittihad FC · Pro League

69 caps · 2G · 13 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.35rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.06 rtg
8 A. Tchouaméni 25 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

44 caps · 3G · 15 since 2024 (3G/2A · 7.47rtg) | club 1G · 7.23 rtg
9 M. Thuram 28 yr

Inter · Serie A

34 caps · 4G · 17 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.08rtg) | club 13G · 6A · 7.04 rtg
11 M. Olise 24 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

14 caps · 4G · 14 since 2024 (4G/2A · 7.79rtg) | club 15G · 19A · 7.89 rtg
18 W. Zaïre-Emery 19 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

10 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.83rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 7.0 rtg
6 M. Koné 24 yr

AS Roma · Serie A

11 caps · 11 since 2024 (7.13rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 7.04 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 3

10 Kylian Mbappé Top scorer 27 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

90 caps · 53G · 20 since 2024 (10G/6A · 7.55rtg) | club 25G · 5A · 7.53 rtg
12 B. Barcola 23 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

17 caps · 3G · 17 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.98rtg) | club 11G · 1A · 7.21 rtg
22 J. Mateta 28 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

3 caps · 2G · 3 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.07rtg) | club 12G · 6.73 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

26 M. Lacroix 25 yr

Crystal Palace · 2c

MID · additional

25 M. Akliouche 23 yr

Monaco · 7c/1g
20 D. Doué 20 yr

Paris Saint Germain · 5c/2g
24 R. Cherki 22 yr

Manchester City · 4c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 3–1 vs Northern Ireland

L 1–2 vs CIV

W 3–1 v COL

W 2–1 v BRA

W 3–1 @ Azerbaijan

W 4–0 vs Ukraine

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(FRA win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	H vs Senegal (SEN)	50.6%	28.5%
2026-06-22	H vs Iraq (IRQ)	70.2%	20.5%
2026-06-26	A vs Norway (NOR)	52.0%	25.2%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

88.2/100

vs model strength +3.3

Top-5 leagues

93%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	7	28.4%	100
Ligue 1	France	8	27.8%	80
Serie A	Italy	4	17.1%	88
La Liga	Spain	3	12.5%	95
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	2	7.2%	60
Bundesliga	Germany	2	6.9%	90

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +3.3 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources