← Fixtures

Group E · GER

Germany

Strength

83.5

± 1.2

Attack

86.2

0–100

Defense

79.2

0–100

P(champion)

4.99%

10.5% reach final

Strength trajectory

83.5 → 83.5 · 0.0

2023-03-31 range 82.9–83.8 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

4.99%

to lift

Polymarket

5.0%

implied · -0.0pp

Kalshi

4.7%

implied · +0.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

58.7%

R16

64.8%

Quarter

35.7%

Semi

20.9%

Final

10.5%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Signal Iduna Park

Dortmund · 81,365 seats (WC avg 55,865; +25,500)

Age profile

mean 27.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 M. Neuer 39 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

115 caps · 7 since 2024 (7.01rtg)
12 O. Baumann 35 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

13 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.3rtg)
21 A. Nübel 29 yr

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.77rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.2 rtg

DEF Defenders · 8

6 J. Kimmich 30 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

106 caps · 10G · 28 since 2024 (4G/11A · 7.2rtg) | club 2G · 8A · 7.74 rtg
2 A. Rüdiger 32 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

81 caps · 3G · 16 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.15rtg) | club 1G · 6.91 rtg
4 J. Tah 29 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

47 caps · 1G · 26 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.27 rtg
22 D. Raum 27 yr

RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

37 caps · 1G · 18 since 2024 (1G/3A · 6.6rtg) | club 3G · 7A · 7.37 rtg
15 N. Schlotterbeck 26 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

27 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/2A · 8.0rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.7 rtg
3 W. Anton 29 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

13 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 2G · 7.26 rtg
24 M. Thiaw Top minutes 24 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

5 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.8rtg) | club 4G · 7.04 rtg
18 N. Brown 22 yr

Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 4G · 4A · 6.77 rtg

MID Midfielders · 10

19 L. Sané 30 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

71 caps · 15G · 17 since 2024 (4G/4A · 7.300000000000001rtg) | club 7G · 5A · 7.17 rtg
8 L. Goretzka 30 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

65 caps · 11G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 5G · 3A · 7.13 rtg
17 F. Wirtz 22 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

41 caps · 11G · 27 since 2024 (11G/7A · 6.3rtg) | club 5G · 3A · 6.81 rtg
10 J. Musiala 22 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

44 caps · 9G · 17 since 2024 (7G/4A · 6.2rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 6.68 rtg
13 P. Groß 34 yr

Brighton · Premier League

18 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.37rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.05 rtg
20 N. Amiri 29 yr

FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

11 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.7rtg) | club 12G · 2A · 7.45 rtg
5 A. Pavlovic 21 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

11 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.0rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 7.19 rtg
23 F. Nmecha 25 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

8 caps · 1G · 7 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.93 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

7 K. Havertz Top scorer 26 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

55 caps · 22G · 16 since 2024 (8G/3A · 8.0rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.68 rtg
26 D. Undav 29 yr

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

9 caps · 6G · 9 since 2024 (6G/2A · 6.2rtg) | club 19G · 7A · 7.18 rtg
11 N. Woltemade 23 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

11 caps · 4G · 11 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.06rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 6.66 rtg
14 M. Beier 23 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.2rtg) | club 9G · 6A · 6.8 rtg
9 J. Leweling 24 yr

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

5 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6rtg) | club 7G · 9A · 7.03 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

16 A. Stiller 24 yr

VfB Stuttgart · 8c
25 L. Karl 17 yr

Bayern München · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–1 @ USA

W 4–0 vs Finland

W 2–1 vs GHA

W 4–3 @ SUI

W 6–0 vs Slovakia

W 2–0 @ Luxembourg

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(GER win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	H vs Curaçao (CUW)	81.8%	10.0%
2026-06-20	H vs Ivory Coast (CIV)	56.4%	23.8%
2026-06-25	A vs Ecuador (ECU)	44.0%	28.0%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

90.6/100

vs model strength +7.1

Top-5 leagues

96%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Bundesliga	Germany	19	75.9%	90
Premier League	England	5	17.2%	100
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	4.1%	60
La Liga	Spain	1	2.7%	95

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +7.1 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources