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Group G · IRN · outside top-16

Iran

Strength

76.9

± 2.1

Attack

75.0

0–100

Defense

77.5

0–100

P(champion)

0.57%

1.8% reach final

Strength trajectory

77.0 → 76.8 · -0.2

2023-03-31 range 76.3–77.4 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.57%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.4pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

20.1%

R16

37.5%

Quarter

14.5%

Semi

5.1%

Final

1.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Azadi Stadium

Tehran · 78,116 seats (WC avg 55,865; +22,251)

Age profile

mean 29.4 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 A. Beiranvand 33 yr

Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League

79 caps · 17 since 2024 (6.83rtg)
22 H. Hosseini 33 yr

Sepahan FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

11 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
12 P. Niazmand 30 yr

Persepolis FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

8 caps · 4 since 2024

DEF Defenders · 9

3 E. Hajisafi 35 yr

—

119 caps · 5G · 4 since 2024 (5G/0A)
23 R. Rezaeian 35 yr

Foolad FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

68 caps · 6G · 8 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.7rtg) | club 0G · 2A
5 M. Mohammadi 32 yr

Persepolis FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

71 caps · 1G · 18 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 0G · 3A
4 S. Khalilzadeh 36 yr

—

52 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.01rtg)
13 H. Kanani 31 yr

—

46 caps · 4G · 2 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.82rtg)
2 Saleh Hardani 27 yr

—

14 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.06rtg)
17 A. Yousefi 23 yr

Sepahan FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.73rtg)
19 A. Nemati 29 yr

—

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 7

7 A. Jahanbakhsh 32 yr

Dender · Jupiler Pro League

91 caps · 16G · 14 since 2024 (16G/0A · 6.8rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
6 S. Ezatolahi 29 yr

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · Pro League

78 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.23rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.1 rtg
14 S. Ghoddos 32 yr

Al-Ittihad Kalba · League Cup

62 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.11rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 7.4 rtg
16 M. Torabi 31 yr

Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League

49 caps · 7G · 6 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.9rtg)
15 R. Cheshmi 32 yr

—

36 caps · 3G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg)
21 M. Ghorbani 24 yr

Al Wahda FC · Pro League

11 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.64rtg)
26 A. Razzaghinia 19 yr

Esteghlal FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.7rtg)

ATT Attackers · 7

9 M. Taremi Top scorer 33 yr

Olympiakos Piraeus · Super League 1

98 caps · 51G · 21 since 2024 (7G/4A · 7.65rtg) | club 10G · 2A · 7.07 rtg
8 M. Mohebi 27 yr

FC Rostov · Premier League

25 caps · 10G · 10 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.8rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 6.57 rtg
20 S. Moghanlou 31 yr

Al-Ittihad Kalba · League Cup

20 caps · 2G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.83rtg) | club 6G · 2A · 7.189473 rtg
18 A. Hosseinzadeh 25 yr

Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League

12 caps · 2G · 8 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.07rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.795454 rtg
11 A. Alipour 30 yr

—

7 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.3rtg)
24 D. Eckert Ayensa Top minutes 28 yr

Standard Liege · Jupiler Pro League

| club 5G · 6.63 rtg
10 M. Ghaedi 27 yr

—

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

25 D. Eiri 21 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–0 vs Mali

W 3–1 v Gambia

W 5–0 v Costa Rica

L 1–2 v Nigeria

L 0–0 v UZB

W 0–0 v CPV

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(IRN win)	P(draw)
2026-06-15	H vs New Zealand (NZL)	56.5%	28.1%
2026-06-21	A vs Belgium (BEL)	22.5%	26.2%
2026-06-26	A vs Egypt (EGY)	36.5%	32.9%

Where the squad plays

9 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

48.2/100

vs model strength -28.7

Top-5 leagues

Unrated leagues

25%

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	2	27.3%	65
League Cup (unrated)		2	24.9%	30
Premier League	Russia	1	15.3%	55
Super League 1	Greece	1	11.9%	55
Persian Gulf Pro League	Iran	1	10.4%	38
Pro League	United-Arab-Emirates	2	10.3%	40

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -28.7 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources