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Group C · MAR

Morocco

Strength

81.7

± 1.8

Attack

76.5

0–100

Defense

84.6

0–100

P(champion)

2.53%

6.1% reach final

Strength trajectory

79.3 → 81.5 · +2.2

2023-03-31 range 78.9–81.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

2.53%

to lift

Polymarket

1.4%

implied · +1.1pp

Kalshi

1.4%

implied · +1.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

23.0%

R16

47.6%

Quarter

27.6%

Semi

13.6%

Final

6.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stade Mohammed V

Casablanca · 67,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +11,135)

Age profile

mean 25.5 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 Y. Bounou 34 yr

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup

74 caps · 20 since 2024 (6.8999999999999995rtg)
12 M. Mohamedi 36 yr

Renaissance Berkane · Botola Pro

44 caps · 5 since 2024 (7.02rtg)
22 A. Tagnaouti 29 yr

—

3 caps

DEF Defenders · 9

2 A. Hakimi 27 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

85 caps · 11G · 18 since 2024 (2G/6A · 7.2rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.79 rtg
5 N. Aguerd 29 yr

Marseille · Ligue 1

59 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.19rtg) | club 1G · 7.17 rtg
3 N. Mazraoui 28 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

40 caps · 3G · 15 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.2rtg)
19 Y. Belammari 27 yr

Al Ahly · Premier League

13 caps · 10 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.7rtg)
26 A. Salah-Eddine 24 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.83rtg)
18 C. Riad 22 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

5 caps · 1G · 4 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.2rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.57 rtg
14 I. Diop 28 yr

Fulham · Premier League

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (7.0rtg) | club 1G · 6.64 rtg
13 Z. El Ouahdi 24 yr

Genk · Jupiler Pro League

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.299999999999999rtg) | club 8G · 4A · 7.09 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 10

4 S. Amrabat 29 yr

Real Betis · La Liga

74 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.3rtg)
8 A. Ounahi 25 yr

Girona · La Liga

48 caps · 8G · 18 since 2024 (3G/5A · 6.3rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 7.27 rtg
10 Brahim Díaz 26 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

24 caps · 14G · 18 since 2024 (13G/0A · 7.6rtg) | club 1G · 6A · 6.68 rtg
23 B. El Khannouss 21 yr

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

36 caps · 3G · 20 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 4G · 5A · 6.98 rtg
17 A. Ezzalzouli Top minutes 24 yr

Real Betis · La Liga

37 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/5A · 7.2rtg) | club 10G · 8A · 7.32 rtg
24 N. El Aynaoui 24 yr

AS Roma · Serie A

14 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.3rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.7 rtg
7 C. Talbi 20 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

5 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.52rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.63 rtg
15 S. El Mourabet 20 yr

Strasbourg · Ligue 1

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.9rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.95 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 4

20 A. El Kaabi Top scorer 32 yr

Olympiakos Piraeus · Super League 1

64 caps · 28G · 18 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.5rtg) | club 18G · 2A · 6.8 rtg
9 S. Rahimi 29 yr

Al Ain · Pro League

37 caps · 16G · 17 since 2024 (10G/2A · 6.5rtg) | club 2G · 6.98 rtg
11 I. Saibari 24 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

31 caps · 9G · 18 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 15G · 8A · 7.21 rtg
16 Gessime Yassine 20 yr

Dunkerque · Ligue 2

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.8rtg) | club 2G · 6A · 7.08 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

25 R. Halhal 22 yr

KV Mechelen · 3c

MID · additional

6 A. Bouaddi 18 yr

Lille · 2c
21 A. Amaimouni 20 yr

Hoffenheim II · 2c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 vs NOR

W 4–0 vs Madagascar

W 5–0 vs Burundi

W 2–1 v PAR

D 1–1 v ECU

W 3–0 vs SEN

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(MAR win)	P(draw)
2026-06-13	A vs Brazil (BRA)	22.0%	32.0%
2026-06-19	A vs Scotland (SCO)	47.4%	31.1%
2026-06-24	H vs Haiti (HAI)	72.2%	19.1%

Where the squad plays

24 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

73.7/100

vs model strength -8.0

Top-5 leagues

54%

Unrated leagues

10%

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Ligue 1	France	4	19.2%	80
La Liga	Spain	4	17.5%	95
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	2	15.5%	65
Premier League	England	4	10.5%	100
Eredivisie	Netherlands	2	8.6%	72
King's Cup (unrated)		1	7.4%	30
Super League 1	Greece	1	5.6%	55
Bundesliga	Germany	1	4.3%	90
Serie A	Italy	1	2.7%	88
Pro League	United-Arab-Emirates	1	2.3%	40
3. Liga (unrated)	Germany	1	2.3%	30
Ligue 2	France	1	2.1%	48
Premier League	Egypt	1	1.9%	40

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -8.0 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources