← Fixtures

Group C · SCO · outside top-16

Scotland

Strength

75.7

± 1.8

Attack

75.0

0–100

Defense

75.3

0–100

P(champion)

0.29%

0.9% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.3 → 75.5 · +0.2

2023-03-31 range 74.7–75.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.29%

to lift

Polymarket

0.2%

implied · 0.0pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

7.2%

R16

24.5%

Quarter

9.3%

Semi

3.1%

Final

0.9%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Hampden Park

Glasgow · 52,500 seats (WC avg 55,865; -3,365)

Age profile

mean 28.3 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

21 C. Gordon 43 yr

Heart Of Midlothian · Premiership

57 caps · 16 since 2024 (7.03rtg)
1 A. Gunn 29 yr

Nottingham Forest · Premier League

21 caps · 14 since 2024 (7.14rtg)
12 L. Kelly 29 yr

Rangers · Premiership

3 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.6rtg)

DEF Defenders · 10

3 A. Robertson 31 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

85 caps · 3G · 26 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.26rtg) | club 1G · 6.74 rtg
5 G. Hanley 34 yr

Hibernian · Premiership

65 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.87rtg)
6 K. Tierney 28 yr

Celtic · Premiership

53 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.71rtg) | club 6G · 8A · 7.28 rtg
26 S. McKenna 29 yr

Dinamo Zagreb · HNL

44 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.83rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 7.25 rtg
13 J. Hendry 30 yr

Al-Ettifaq · Pro League

38 caps · 3G · 9 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.84rtg) | club 1G · 6.75 rtg
22 N. Patterson 24 yr

Everton · Premier League

27 caps · 1G · 7 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.87rtg)
24 A. Ralston 27 yr

Celtic · Premiership

26 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.8rtg)
15 J. Souttar 29 yr

Rangers · Premiership

23 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.24rtg)

+ 2 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 7

7 J. McGinn 31 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

75 caps · 13G · 23 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.05rtg) | club 5G · 4A · 6.95 rtg
11 R. Christie 30 yr

Bournemouth · Premier League

73 caps · 11G · 29 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.87rtg) | club 2G · 6.72 rtg
4 S. McTominay Top scorer 29 yr

Napoli · Serie A

60 caps · 14G · 22 since 2024 (6G/1A · 7.02rtg) | club 10G · 3A · 7.06 rtg
23 K. McLean 33 yr

Norwich · Championship

65 caps · 3G · 29 since 2024 (1G/3A · 7.01rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 7.23 rtg
19 L. Ferguson 26 yr

Bologna · Serie A

23 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.0rtg) | club 1G · 6.74 rtg
17 B. Doak 20 yr

Bournemouth · Premier League

19 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/3A · 6.89rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.43 rtg
8 T. Fletcher 18 yr

Manchester United U21 · EFL Trophy

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.6rtg)

ATT Attackers · 6

9 L. Dykes 30 yr

Charlton · Championship

55 caps · 10G · 22 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.62rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 6.58 rtg
10 C. Adams 29 yr

Torino · Serie A

49 caps · 11G · 19 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.79rtg) | club 6G · 2A · 6.71 rtg
20 L. Shankland 30 yr

Heart Of Midlothian · League Cup

19 caps · 6G · 12 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.75rtg) | club 24G · 4A · 7.14054 rtg
18 G. Hirst 26 yr

Ipswich · Championship

9 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.85rtg) | club 11G · 3A · 6.61 rtg
25 Findlay Curtis 19 yr

Kilmarnock · Premiership

2 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.35rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.32 rtg
14 R. Stewart 29 yr

Southampton · Championship

2 caps | club 9G · 2A · 6.83 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

2 A. Hickey 23 yr

Brentford · 20c
16 D. Hyam 30 yr

Wrexham · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 4–0 @ Bolivia

W 4–1 vs CUW

L 0–1 v CIV

L 0–1 vs JPN

W 4–2 vs Denmark

L 2–3 @ Greece

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(SCO win)	P(draw)
2026-06-13	A vs Haiti (HAI)	62.7%	21.4%
2026-06-19	H vs Morocco (MAR)	21.4%	31.1%
2026-06-24	H vs Brazil (BRA)	12.9%	22.0%

Where the squad plays

25 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

64.8/100

vs model strength -10.9

Top-5 leagues

29%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Championship	England	5	29.0%	55
Premiership	Scotland	6	22.0%	50
Serie A	Italy	3	15.3%	88
Premier League	England	7	13.3%	100
League Cup	Scotland	1	7.4%	50
HNL	Croatia	1	6.4%	55
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	1	6.2%	60
EFL Trophy (unrated)	England	1	0.4%	30

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -10.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources