← Fixtures

Group I · SEN · outside top-16

Senegal

Strength

78.4

± 1.6

Attack

75.5

0–100

Defense

79.6

0–100

P(champion)

0.85%

2.3% reach final

Strength trajectory

76.0 → 78.5 · +2.5

2023-03-31 range 75.9–78.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.85%

to lift

Polymarket

0.6%

implied · +0.2pp

Kalshi

0.6%

implied · +0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

17.8%

R16

34.5%

Quarter

14.5%

Semi

6.0%

Final

2.3%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade

Diamniadio · 50,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,865)

Age profile

mean 26.1 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

16 É. Mendy 33 yr

Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League

47 caps · 14 since 2024 (7.4rtg)
23 M. Diaw 32 yr

Le Havre · Ligue 1

5 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.45rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.02 rtg
1 Y. Diouf 26 yr

Nice · Ligue 1

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.2rtg)

DEF Defenders · 7

3 K. Koulibaly 34 yr

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup

80 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.1rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.233333 rtg
15 K. Diatta 26 yr

Monaco · Ligue 1

49 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.38rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
19 M. Niakhaté 29 yr

Lyon · Ligue 1

28 caps · 16 since 2024 (7.15rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 7.22 rtg
4 A. Seck 33 yr

Maccabi Haifa · Ligat Ha'al

21 caps · 3G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.11rtg) | club 2G · 6.82 rtg
25 E. Diouf 21 yr

West Ham · Premier League

15 caps · 15 since 2024 (7.25rtg) | club 0G · 5A · 6.74 rtg
2 M. Sarr 20 yr

Strasbourg · Ligue 1

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.92rtg)
24 A. Mendy 21 yr

Nice · Ligue 1

6 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.58rtg) | club 1G · 6.8 rtg

MID Midfielders · 8

5 I. Gueye 36 yr

Everton · Premier League

99 caps · 5G · 19 since 2024 (5G/1A · 7.4rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.79 rtg
8 L. Camara 21 yr

Monaco · Ligue 1

39 caps · 6G · 19 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.93rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 7.16 rtg
26 P. Gueye 26 yr

Villarreal · La Liga

39 caps · 5G · 17 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.2rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 7.12 rtg
13 I. Ndiaye Top minutes 25 yr

Everton · Premier League

36 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.92rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 6.88 rtg
17 P. Sarr 23 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

35 caps · 2G · 10 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 6.82 rtg
6 P. Ciss 31 yr

Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

29 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.8rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.01 rtg
14 I. Jakobs 26 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

29 caps · 13 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.85rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.73 rtg
22 Bara Ndiaye 18 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.5rtg)

ATT Attackers · 8

10 S. Mané Top scorer 33 yr

Al-Nassr · Pro League

91 caps · 47G · 18 since 2024 (9G/3A · 7.47rtg) | club 10G · 6A · 7.28 rtg
18 I. Sarr 27 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

69 caps · 17G · 17 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.06rtg) | club 9G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
11 N. Jackson 24 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

29 caps · 4G · 18 since 2024 (4G/2A · 6.85rtg) | club 8G · 1A · 6.77 rtg
9 B. Dieng 25 yr

Lorient · Ligue 1

24 caps · 3G · 3 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.2rtg) | club 10G · 1A · 6.81 rtg
21 H. Diarra 21 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

18 caps · 4G · 16 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.97rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.72 rtg
12 C. Ndiaye 30 yr

Samsunspor · Süper Lig

16 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.74rtg) | club 7G · 1A · 6.72 rtg
7 Assane Diao 20 yr

Como · Serie A

13 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.89rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.74 rtg
20 I. Mbaye 17 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

10 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.11rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 6.77 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 0–0 @ KSA

L 2–3 @ USA

W 3–1 vs Gambia

W 2–0 v Peru

L 0–3 @ MAR

W 1–0 v EGY

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(SEN win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	A vs France (FRA)	20.9%	28.5%
2026-06-22	A vs Norway (NOR)	33.8%	29.0%
2026-06-26	H vs Iraq (IRQ)	53.0%	29.6%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

80.2/100

vs model strength +1.8

Top-5 leagues

76%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Ligue 1	France	9	35.5%	80
Premier League	England	6	27.0%	100
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	2	9.4%	60
La Liga	Spain	2	8.9%	95
Süper Lig	Turkey	2	5.9%	60
King's Cup (unrated)		1	5.6%	30
Ligat Ha'al	Israel	1	3.0%	45
Bundesliga	Germany	2	2.5%	90
Serie A	Italy	1	2.3%	88

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +1.8 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources