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Group H · URU

Uruguay

Strength

82.0

± 1.9

Attack

78.9

0–100

Defense

82.9

0–100

P(champion)

3.14%

6.9% reach final

Strength trajectory

81.6 → 82.1 · +0.5

2023-03-31 range 81.2–82.8 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

3.14%

to lift

Polymarket

0.9%

implied · +2.2pp

Kalshi

0.9%

implied · +2.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

26.4%

R16

45.8%

Quarter

26.2%

Semi

14.3%

Final

6.9%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estadio Centenario

Montevideo · 60,235 seats (WC avg 55,865; +4,370)

Age profile

mean 27.8 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 F. Muslera 39 yr

Estudiantes L.P. · Liga Profesional Argentina

132 caps · 1 since 2024 (7.3rtg)
1 S. Rochet 32 yr

Internacional · Serie A

35 caps · 22 since 2024 (7.11rtg)
12 S. Mele 28 yr

Junior · Primera A

8 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.08rtg)

DEF Defenders · 7

2 J. Giménez 30 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

100 caps · 8G · 19 since 2024 (8G/1A · 6.95rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.99 rtg
17 M. Viña 28 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

44 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.86rtg)
16 M. Olivera 28 yr

Napoli · Serie A

37 caps · 2G · 25 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.12rtg)
4 R. Araújo 26 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

29 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.27rtg) | club 3G · 6.9 rtg
13 G. Varela 32 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

30 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.86rtg) | club 0G · 4A · 7.1 rtg
3 S. Cáceres 26 yr

Club America · Liga MX

24 caps · 21 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.91rtg)
24 S. Bueno 27 yr

Wolves · Premier League

8 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.04rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.77 rtg

MID Midfielders · 10

8 F. Valverde Top minutes 27 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

73 caps · 9G · 24 since 2024 (4G/0A · 7.35rtg) | club 5G · 8A · 7.33 rtg
10 G. de Arrascaeta Top scorer 31 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

60 caps · 13G · 18 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.05rtg) | club 18G · 14A · 7.73 rtg
6 R. Bentancur 28 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

73 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.96rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.76 rtg
7 N. de la Cruz 28 yr

Flamengo · Supercopa do Brasil

34 caps · 5G · 15 since 2024 (3G/5A · 7.44rtg) | club 5G · 7.376 rtg
5 M. Ugarte 24 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

35 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.94rtg)
20 M. Araújo 25 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

28 caps · 3G · 26 since 2024 (2G/6A · 6.92rtg) | club 5G · 4A · 6.84 rtg
14 A. Canobbio 27 yr

Fluminense · Serie A

19 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.44rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 6.91 rtg
26 R. Zalazar 26 yr

SC Braga · Primeira Liga

7 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.87rtg) | club 16G · 5A · 7.31 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 6

9 D. Núñez 26 yr

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League

38 caps · 13G · 22 since 2024 (10G/2A · 7.15rtg) | club 6G · 4A · 6.91 rtg
18 B. Rodríguez 25 yr

Club America · Liga MX

38 caps · 4G · 19 since 2024 (4G/2A · 6.83rtg) | club 13G · 7A · 7.28 rtg
11 F. Pellistri 24 yr

Panathinaikos · Super League 1

39 caps · 2G · 27 since 2024 (2G/4A · 7.07rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.55 rtg
22 J. Piquerez 27 yr

Palmeiras · Serie A

19 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.81rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 7.06 rtg
19 R. Aguirre 31 yr

Club America · Liga MX

10 caps · 3G · 10 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.0rtg) | club 4G · 6.57 rtg
21 F. Viñas 27 yr

Oviedo · La Liga

11 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (2G/3A · 7.01rtg) | club 9G · 1A · 6.95 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

15 E. Martínez 26 yr

Palmeiras · 10c
25 J. Sanabria 25 yr

Atletico San Luis · 5c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 0–0 v ALG

D 1–1 @ ENG

L 1–5 @ USA

D 0–0 @ MEX

W 2–1 v UZB

W 1–0 v Dominican Republic

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(URU win)	P(draw)
2026-06-15	A vs Saudi Arabia (KSA)	59.6%	27.1%
2026-06-21	H vs Cape Verde (CPV)	63.7%	24.7%
2026-06-26	H vs Spain (ESP)	22.9%	28.3%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

73.5/100

vs model strength -8.5

Top-5 leagues

32%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Serie A	Brazil	7	25.8%	70
Liga MX	Mexico	4	17.4%	50
La Liga	Spain	4	16.9%	95
Premier League	England	3	12.1%	100
Primeira Liga	Portugal	2	9.4%	70
Supercopa do Brasil	Brazil	1	4.1%	70
Liga Profesional Argentina	Argentina	1	3.9%	62
Primera A	Colombia	1	3.5%	50
Serie A	Italy	1	3.1%	88
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	1	2.8%	60
Super League 1	Greece	1	0.7%	55

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -8.5 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources