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Group J · ALG · outside top-16

Algeria

Strength

76.4

± 1.5

Attack

77.2

0–100

Defense

74.6

0–100

P(champion)

0.27%

0.9% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.2 → 76.1 · +0.9

2023-03-31 range 74.5–76.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.27%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.1pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

9.9%

R16

21.2%

Quarter

8.1%

Semi

2.8%

Final

0.9%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stade Nelson Mandela

Algiers · 40,784 seats (WC avg 55,865; -15,081)

Age profile

mean 26.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 L. Zidane 27 yr

Granada CF · Segunda División

6 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.51rtg)
1 M. Mastil 25 yr

—

1 cap
16 O. Benbot 31 yr

USM Alger · Ligue 1

1 cap

DEF Defenders · 9

2 A. Mandi Top minutes 34 yr

Lille · Ligue 1

94 caps · 7G · 18 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.05rtg) | club 1G · 7.25 rtg
21 R. Bensebaïni 30 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

67 caps · 7G · 16 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.33rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 7.44 rtg
4 M. Tougai 26 yr

ES Tunis · Ligue 1

26 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.16rtg) | club 2G
15 R. Aït-Nouri 24 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

28 caps · 17 since 2024 (6.94rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.92 rtg
5 Z. Belaïd 27 yr

St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League

20 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.2rtg)
13 J. Hadjam 22 yr

BSC Young Boys · Super League

16 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.0rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 7.17 rtg
17 R. Belghali 23 yr

Hellas Verona · Serie A

10 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.66rtg) | club 2G · 6.72 rtg
3 A. Abada 26 yr

ASO Chlef · Ligue 1

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.8rtg)

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 7

19 N. Bentaleb 31 yr

Lille · Ligue 1

46 caps · 6G · 6 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.77rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
6 R. Zerrouki 27 yr

Twente · Eredivisie

49 caps · 3G · 18 since 2024 (3G/2A · 6.99rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 7.22 rtg
10 F. Chaïbi 23 yr

Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga

25 caps · 3G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.85rtg) | club 2G · 9A · 6.83 rtg
8 H. Aouar 27 yr

Al-Ittihad FC · Pro League

18 caps · 5G · 10 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.98rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 7.08 rtg
14 H. Boudaoui 26 yr

Nice · Ligue 1

25 caps · 7 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.82rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.8 rtg
22 I. Maza 20 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

14 caps · 2G · 13 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.2rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 7.11 rtg
24 Y. Titraoui 22 yr

Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League

5 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.7rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.26 rtg

ATT Attackers · 7

7 R. Mahrez Top scorer 34 yr

Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League

89 caps · 35G · 16 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.33rtg) | club 4G · 8A · 7.53 rtg
18 M. Amoura 26 yr

VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

38 caps · 14G · 15 since 2024 (3G/2A · 6.89rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 6.72 rtg
9 A. Gouiri 25 yr

Marseille · Ligue 1

18 caps · 6G · 11 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.99rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 6.96 rtg
20 A. Boulbina 22 yr

Al-Duhail SC · Stars League

11 caps · 7G · 11 since 2024 (7G/1A · 6.62rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.975 rtg
11 A. Hadj-Moussa 23 yr

Feyenoord · Eredivisie

11 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.07rtg) | club 11G · 6A · 7.47 rtg
12 A. Benbouali 26 yr

Gyori ETO FC · NB I

4 caps · 1G · 3 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 5G · 4A · 6.99 rtg
25 F. Ghedjemis 23 yr

Frosinone · Serie B

1 cap | club 15G · 3A · 7.27 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

26 S. Chergui 26 yr

Paris FC · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 4–0 @ Bolivia

W 1–0 @ NED

D 0–0 v URU

W 7–0 v Guatemala

L 0–2 v Nigeria

W 1–0 v COD

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(ALG win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	A vs Argentina (ARG)	13.8%	22.8%
2026-06-22	A vs Jordan (JOR)	52.9%	25.0%
2026-06-27	H vs Austria (AUT)	33.4%	26.6%

Where the squad plays

21 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

71.8/100

vs model strength -4.6

Top-5 leagues

47%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Ligue 1	France	5	20.6%	80
Bundesliga	Germany	4	18.6%	90
Eredivisie	Netherlands	2	13.6%	72
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	2	10.7%	60
Serie B	Italy	1	7.9%	50
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	1	7.6%	65
Segunda División	Spain	1	6.1%	50
Serie A	Italy	1	5.0%	88
Super League	Switzerland	1	3.2%	55
NB I	Hungary	1	2.8%	42
Premier League	England	1	2.6%	100
Stars League	Qatar	1	1.4%	40

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -4.6 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources